Chicago Fire FC at D.C. United

MLS May 13, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

D.C. United

0.5

OMEGA spread vs market CHI -0.5 (0.5pt edge); Dixon-Coles home +0.5 cover ~59% (win 40.6% + draw 18.7%)

Ω Bottom Line

DC +0.5/+165 ML: +3.6% Bayesian edge + extreme whales $261k, model 7.5 total crushes 2.5 line

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

D.C. United

Line: 0.5

60%

OMEGA spread vs market CHI -0.5 (0.5pt edge); Dixon-Coles home +0.5 cover ~59% (win 40.6% + draw 18.7%)

MONEYLINE

D.C. United

60%

calibrated 41.4% vs market 37.7% (+3.6pp edge); exceeds breakeven by 3.7pp

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

60%

Posterior over 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp); OMEGA total, expected scores 3.8-3.8

Game Analysis

Omega Poisson+ELO projects even 3.8-3.8 scoreline (total 7.6) vs market 2.5 total and Chicago -0.5 spread, creating +5pt total edge and 0.5pt spread edge to DC. Bayesian fuses to +3.6pp home ML value at +165, confirmed by extreme $254k whale volume (institutional tier) on DC at 64% consensus. Low model agreement and degraded data (55% signals) cap at leans despite strong quant divergence.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Sean Johnson D.C. United

Over 3.5 saves 62%

Season leader in saves, home matchup vs Chicago avg attack projects 4.0+

PROP ALERT

Silvan Hefti D.C. United

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Team assist leader, right back overlaps create SOT upside vs Chicago defense

PROP ALERT

Lucas Bartlett D.C. United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

CB low usage, minimal attacking returns in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Jared Stroud D.C. United

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Winger high volume, projects 1.2 vs Chicago leaky backline

PROP ALERT

Keisuke Kurokawa D.C. United

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

MF creativity boosts SOT in high-total projection

PROP ALERT

Kye Rowles D.C. United

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 65%

Defender zero SOT threat consistently

PROP ALERT

Brandon Servania D.C. United

Under 0.5 goals 61%

Low finishing volume for MF

PROP ALERT

Matti Peltola D.C. United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Def mid limited attacks

PROP ALERT

Chris Brady Chicago Fire FC

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Away GK faces DC home attack projecting 3.8 goals

PROP ALERT

Anton Saletros Chicago Fire FC

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

MF leader, high usage in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Jack Elliott Chicago Fire FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 63%

CB minimal forward forays

PROP ALERT

Mauricio Pineda Chicago Fire FC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

FB attacking potential vs DC

PROP ALERT

Andrew Gutman Chicago Fire FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Limited SOT as defender

PROP ALERT

Joel Waterman Chicago Fire FC

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 64%

CB no attacking projection

PROP ALERT

Jeff Gal Chicago Fire FC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Occasional forward runs

PROP ALERT

Josh Cohen Chicago Fire FC

Under 3.5 saves 58%

Backup GK lower volume expected

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