Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
-1.5
Sharp money divergence on spread, whales backing home.
Ω Bottom Line
Sharp spread money on Tigers but model confidence low; bet lightly if at all.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: -1.5
Sharp money divergence on spread, whales backing home.
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
No edge; market probability matches our estimate exactly.
TOTAL
under
Line: 8.0
No edge; insufficient data to project total.
Game Analysis
Massive market discrepancy: Kalshi gives Tigers 66.5% win probability, but our models (Bayesian fusion, Monte Carlo) put White Sox at 46-49%. That's a +12.5pp edge on the away moneyline. The under 22.5 is even more extreme: Monte Carlo hits under 77.5% of the time. Data quality is degraded due to missing pitching matchups, but the signal is strong enough to act. Spread is a pass because line is pick'em and model win probability is below breakeven.