Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
1.5
calibrated gives 53.9% cover probability vs market 50%, a +3.9pp edge on the underdog spread.
Ω Bottom Line
White Sox +1.5 has +3.9pp edge with extra 1.5 points from Omega line; over 9.5 has massive +15.2pp Bayesian edge but model uncertainty caps confidence.
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees
calibrated shows 62.3% win probability vs market 61.1%, yielding a small +1.2% edge.
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
Line: 1.5
calibrated gives 53.9% cover probability vs market 50%, a +3.9pp edge on the underdog spread.
TOTAL
over
Line: 9.5
calibrated shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50%, a massive +15.2pp edge.
Game Analysis
Despite sharp money and whales siding with the Yankees, the Bayesian fusion model sees value on the White Sox side of the spread and moneyline, with a +6.3pp edge on the spread and +3.0pp on the moneyline. The total over at 8.5 shows a massive +15.2pp edge, but the model's total projection is suspect (22.5) due to missing pitcher data, so confidence is reduced. Data quality is degraded, so all picks are lean only.