Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals

MLB April 13, 2026 11:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Cleveland Guardians

-1.5

Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.5 implies +1.5pt value on CLE cover; sharp 18.5% edge away + +51.5% EV on away spread

Ω Bottom Line

CLE RL -1.5: Omega pick'em + sharp 18.5% away edge +51.5% EV vs market juice, +5.1 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Cleveland Guardians

Line: -1.5

62%

Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.5 implies +1.5pt value on CLE cover; sharp 18.5% edge away + +51.5% EV on away spread

MONEYLINE

Cleveland Guardians

58%

Bayesian fusion 57% away vs market 54.1% implied; model consensus 31.4% home regression risk

Game Analysis

Omega line juices Guardians -220 (31% Cards implied) but MC/Bayesian fuse to 45% Cards win prob for +44 EV on +220 ML; whales pile home ($36k strong) confirming contrarian value vs model anchor. Injuries slight Cards edge (+1.4%); no pitchers caps conf despite low agreement. Spread marginal away, totals weak historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 1.0 hits 58%

.327 AVG projects over 1 hit vs Guardians SP; high usage leader

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Leader in AVG/HR/RBI; model projects 1.8 TB in neutral matchup

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

14 RBI leader; lineup spot boosts RBI projection

PROP ALERT

Michael McGreevy St. Louis Cardinals

Under 4.5 strikeouts 57%

2.16 ERA leader but low K/9 implied; Guardians contact hitters

PROP ALERT

Dustin May St. Louis Cardinals

Over 5.0 strikeouts 55%

11 K leader projection vs Guardians weak vs RHP

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Over 0.5 hits 59%

.300 AVG leader; favorable Cardinals SP matchup

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

5 HR but low power projection in dome/neutral park

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

12 RBI leader; cleanup potential

PROP ALERT

Parker Messick Cleveland Guardians

Over 5.5 strikeouts 58%

0.51 ERA elite; Cardinals K-prone lineup

PROP ALERT

Parker Messick Cleveland Guardians

Under 2.5 earned_runs 57%

Model projects low ER allowed vs STL injuries

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

7 HR but park/SP suppress HR

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Contact hitter projects well vs STL staff

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