Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers

NHL April 14, 2026 01:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

-1.5

Sharp 11.7% edge on away spread + +27.6% EV vs fair value (31.1% cover prob)

Ω Bottom Line

COL +12.4% net injury edge + sharp 11.7% spread divergence vs Draisaitl/Hyman-out Oilers (our 55% > 53.5% implied, +2.8 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

Line: -1.5

60%

Sharp 11.7% edge on away spread + +27.6% EV vs fair value (31.1% cover prob)

MONEYLINE

Colorado Avalanche

60%

Injuries crater Edmonton (-25% lambda adj) vs COL -12.6%; cross-market away consensus

TOTAL

over

Line: 6.5

55%

Sharp 9.5% edge + RLM on over; cross-market over lean

Game Analysis

Edmonton faces steeper injury hit (-25% vs -16% Avs) but EXTREME whales ($164k, 96%) pile on home +165 where our 46% prob crushes 37.7% implied (MC 44.3%, Bayesian 49.2%). PK spread value from model agreement HIGH, over lean on MC 55.6% despite missing props/odds. Degraded data caps at SHARP_LEAN.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.5 points 60%

League-leading 52G/74A/126P; increased usage with Kadri out (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.0 assists 58%

74A season avg; EDM depleted D favors playmaking

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 57%

High-volume shooter vs weakened EDM D

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.0 points 59%

Top-line winger thrives vs injury-hit EDM

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 goals 56%

Power-play opportunities up w/ home injuries

PROP ALERT

Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche

Under 0.5 assists 55%

DTD status caps minutes/usage (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Artturi Lehkonen Colorado Avalanche

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Secondary scoring vs depleted EDM

PROP ALERT

Casey Mittelstadt Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 points 56%

Kadri out boosts 2C role/opportunities

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.5 points 60%

47G/86A/133P leader carries depleted lineup

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.0 assists 59%

86A avg; PP1 focal point w/ Draisaitl/Hyman out

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 4.0 shots_on_goal 58%

Volume unaffected by teammate injuries

PROP ALERT

Evan Bouchard Edmonton Oilers

Over 0.5 points 57%

PP usage spikes w/ forwards out

PROP ALERT

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Edmonton Oilers

Over 0.5 assists 56%

Elevated role on top lines

PROP ALERT

Stuart Skinner Edmonton Oilers

Over 27.5 saves 55%

Expected high shots vs COL offense (total over lean)

PROP ALERT

Darnell Nurse Edmonton Oilers

Over 2.5 blocks 55%

Top D steps up w/ injuries

PROP ALERT

Zach Hyman Edmonton Oilers

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Out (model proj 0)

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