Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL May 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

-2.0

Strong sharp 12.9% divergence on away spread + +33.7% EV vs Market Consensus fair (away cover 31.8% fair vs market).

Ω Bottom Line

Avalanche -2: sharp 12.9% spread edge + $286k extreme whales + MIN injury hit (-6.4% net) = 8.2 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

Line: -2.0

60%

Strong sharp 12.9% divergence on away spread + +33.7% EV vs Market Consensus fair (away cover 31.8% fair vs market).

MONEYLINE

Colorado Avalanche

55%

Boosted posterior to 55% from 52.8% on net injury edge (-6.4% home disadvantage) + extreme whales.

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.8

57%

Sharp 2.8% edge on under vs fair value (under 48% fair vs market over 52%).

Game Analysis

Wild hammered by injuries (Brodin/Eriksson Ek out = -22% team, net -9.5% to Avs) while Manson/Kiviranta lesser hits for Col. Extreme whale steam $286k (institutional tier) + Bayesian +2.5pp Avs edge + MC away 48.4% win/68% under 15.5. Degraded data caps conviction but under has +30 EV at model total.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.5 points 60%

League-leading 127 points, high usage vs MIN injuries (Brodin DTD); model proj 1.7 in low-total spot.

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 goals 58%

53 goals season, MIN D depleted (Brodin/Bogosian DTD); proj 0.6.

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.0 assists 59%

74 assists, playmaker in low-scoring game; proj 1.1.

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 57%

High volume shooter, MIN D injuries boost; proj 3.9.

PROP ALERT

Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.0 points 56%

Elite D, PP threat vs Brodin out; proj 1.1.

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 points 55%

High-usage winger, MacKinnon synergy; proj 0.8.

PROP ALERT

Alexandar Georgiev Colorado Avalanche

Under 25.5 saves 58%

Low total 3.8 implies low shots; model proj 24.

PROP ALERT

Valeri Nichushkin Colorado Avalanche

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Netfront presence vs weak MIN D; proj 2.8.

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 1.0 points 59%

89 points leader, high usage despite injuries; proj 1.2.

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 goals 57%

45 goals, volume shooter; proj 0.7.

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 3.0 shots_on_goal 60%

Elite volume vs Manson DTD; proj 3.5.

PROP ALERT

Matt Boldy Minnesota Wild

Under 0.5 points 56%

Injury cascade (Eriksson Ek DTD) but low total caps; proj 0.4.

PROP ALERT

Mats Zuccarello Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 assists 55%

Playmaker for Kaprizov; proj 0.6.

PROP ALERT

Brock Faber Minnesota Wild

Under 0.5 points 57%

D vs elite COL attack, injuries compound; proj 0.3.

PROP ALERT

Filip Gustavsson Minnesota Wild

Under 26.5 saves 58%

Low total/low shots expected; proj 25.

PROP ALERT

Joel Eriksson Ek Minnesota Wild

Under 0.5 points 55%

Day-to-day, reduced role if plays; proj 0.3.

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