Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

MLB April 26, 2026 09:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

2.2

Omega spread pick'em (0.0) vs market Mets -2.2; MC projects Rockies margin +0.4 (71% cover +2.2, std 4.8)

Ω Bottom Line

Rockies +2.2: Omega pick'em vs -2.2 market, MC 71% cover (+14.5 EV), models fade juiced Mets

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

Line: 2.2

65%

Omega spread pick'em (0.0) vs market Mets -2.2; MC projects Rockies margin +0.4 (71% cover +2.2, std 4.8)

MONEYLINE

Colorado Rockies

62%

model 49.5% Rockies win vs market implied 37.7% breakeven; exceeds by 11.8%

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

55%

model projected 21.0 total (10.3-10.7); 22.7% over 24 but crushes market 8.0

Game Analysis

Omega even spread vs market Mets -2.2 + MC 50.2% Rockies win prob screams +2.2 cover value despite whales extreme home ($414k). Projected 21.4 total crushes 7.5 market but totals WR 51.2% lean losing historically. Bayesian -13.7% home edge + injury net away adv, but sharp split and no pitchers cap at lean; ML +43 EV too juicy to pass.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Francisco Lindor New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Model projection: season .280 BA, Citi matchup neutral; usage high

PROP ALERT

Pete Alonso New York Mets

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Model projection: power hitter vs Rockies staff, park suppresses but volume edge

PROP ALERT

Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

Under 0.5 hits 56%

Model projection: .260 BA, Rockies road RHP matchup tough

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Model projection: .243 BA leader, catcher usage steady

PROP ALERT

Starling Marte New York Mets

Under 1.0 total_bases 59%

Model projection: injury history, Citi suppresses extra bases

PROP ALERT

Jeff McNeil New York Mets

Under 1.0 hits 57%

Model projection: contact hitter but Rockies arms limit

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

Model projection: low RBI spots, bullpen game risk

PROP ALERT

Ezequiel Tovar Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Model projection: SS high contact, Citi road splits ok

PROP ALERT

Ryan McMahon Colorado Rockies

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Model projection: power vs Mets staff, injury cascade boost

PROP ALERT

Brenton Doyle Colorado Rockies

Under 0.5 hits 55%

Model projection: low BA road, Citi wind in suppresses

PROP ALERT

Michael Toglia Colorado Rockies

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

Model projection: low HR rate away from Coors

PROP ALERT

Brendan Rodgers Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Model projection: contact vs Mets RHP

PROP ALERT

Kris Bryant Colorado Rockies

Under 1.0 total_bases 56%

Model projection: injury prone, road fade

PROP ALERT

Charlie Blackmon Colorado Rockies

Under 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection: age decline, Citi tough

PROP ALERT

Hunter Goodman Colorado Rockies

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Model projection: low lineup spot

PROP ALERT

Tyler Freeman Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Model projection: speed/contact edge

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