Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB May 08, 2026 10:40 PM ET FINAL 9 - 7

Ω OMEGA PICK

72% Strong

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

1.5

MC projects Rockies +2.7 margin (11.3-8.6), covers +1.5 in 82% sims vs market heavy PHI juice

Ω Bottom Line

Dollander edge + MC 69% Rockies ML (+92 EV at +179), over 7.5 smashes 7.5 total (proj 20 runs)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

Line: 1.5

72%

MC projects Rockies +2.7 margin (11.3-8.6), covers +1.5 in 82% sims vs market heavy PHI juice

MONEYLINE

Colorado Rockies

69%

Omega ML -163 + model 68.9% win prob vs market +179 (35.8% implied), calibrated model edge +8.4pp away

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

60%

calibrated over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) + MC proj 19.9 total vs soft 7.5 line

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior pegs Phillies at 62.2% win prob vs omega_model's +138 implying just 42% for +48 EV on ML. MC sims project 10.1-9.7 score (71.9% under 22.5, HIGH conf) on inflated total. Extreme $953k whale volume (95% home) + Kalshi 64.5% converge despite VERY_LOW model agreement.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.0 hits 60%

Model proj 1.3 hits vs soft matchup, Citizens Bank boost

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

12 HR leader, Dollander RO rookie vulnerability in park

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

.333 BA leader, high pace projection

PROP ALERT

Jesus Luzardo Philadelphia Phillies

Under 5.5 strikeouts 60%

5.09 ERA, Rockies contact hitters + wind out

PROP ALERT

Cristopher Sanchez Philadelphia Phillies

Over 4.5 strikeouts 57%

Recent 60 K pace, but relief role projection

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

HR leader cascades to RBI in high total spot

PROP ALERT

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

23 RBI leader, favorable Dollander matchup

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Lower lineup spot, limited opps vs strong Dollander

PROP ALERT

Chase Dollander Colorado Rockies

Over 6.5 strikeouts 62%

3.38 ERA dominates PHI K-prone lineup (Luzardo bounce-back irrelevant)

PROP ALERT

Troy Johnston Colorado Rockies

Over 1.0 hits 59%

.325 BA leader vs Luzardo 5.09 ERA

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 home_runs 57%

11 HR leader, Citizens wind/park boost vs poor Luzardo

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

21 ? leader, high usage projection

PROP ALERT

Troy Johnston Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

Model cascades from PHI injuries

PROP ALERT

Michael Lorenzen Colorado Rockies

Over 4.0 strikeouts 55%

Relief spot vs PHI in high total

PROP ALERT

Chase Dollander Colorado Rockies

Under 0.5 hits 60%

Strong control vs PHI contact

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 hits 59%

Consistent vs lefty Luzardo

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail