Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB May 13, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

1.5

OMEGA spread and MC home cover 49% at even vs market implying PIT -1.86 equiv

Ω Bottom Line

Omega 22.5 total & MC 19.8 proj vs 8.5 market (+24.4 EV over 8.5); even spread juices dog +1.5

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

Line: 1.5

58%

OMEGA spread and MC home cover 49% at even vs market implying PIT -1.86 equiv

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

65%

calibrated 65.2% over (+15.2pp edge); OMEGA total, MC proj 19.8

Game Analysis

Pirates anchor at 63.5% Bayesian posterior ML win prob, boosted to 65% by extreme $191k whale volume (institutional tier, 62% conviction). Injuries net neutral (-8% each), with Pirates edge in leaders (Skenes 2.36 ERA vs Dollander 3.35). Model lines conservative absent pitchers/MC; ML sharp lean given profitable historical tier.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Paul Skenes Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 6.5 strikeouts 62%

1.98 ERA leader, 56K season avg vs COL weak offense (model proj 7.2K)

PROP ALERT

Paul Skenes Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 7.5 strikeouts 55%

Model matchup adj for COL patience lowers to 7.0

PROP ALERT

Oneil Cruz Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 0.5 hits 60%

High K but .280 BA vs RHP, COL SP weak contact mgmt

PROP ALERT

Oneil Cruz Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

10 HR season but 25% vs LHB if COL LHP, park neutral

PROP ALERT

Nick Gonzales Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 1.5 hits 57%

.321 BA inflated small sample, regresses vs avg SP

PROP ALERT

Oneil Cruz Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Power profile + COL SP 4.50 ERA proj boosts XBH

PROP ALERT

Paul Skenes Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

Floor play vs Rockies high K% lineup

PROP ALERT

Nick Gonzales Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 1.5 total_bases 56%

Contact hitter, limited power vs potential Dollander K stuff

PROP ALERT

Chase Dollander Colorado Rockies

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

3.35 ERA prospect, PIT young lineup high chase%

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

11 HR but PIT SP Skenes elite 1.98 ERA suppresses power

PROP ALERT

Troy Johnston Colorado Rockies

Over 1.5 hits 60%

.328 BA hot streak, favorable vs PIT bullpen

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

21 RBI usage up with injuries, PIT park HR friendly

PROP ALERT

Chase Dollander Colorado Rockies

Over 4.5 strikeouts 61%

Proj floor 5.5K vs PIT contact but high whiff lineup

PROP ALERT

Troy Johnston Colorado Rockies

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

BA high but low power/RBI profile vs Skenes

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 hits 59%

Leadoff potential, Skenes vulnerable to fastballs

PROP ALERT

Chase Dollander Colorado Rockies

Under 6.5 strikeouts 56%

Road start PIT hitters disciplined

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