Columbus Crew at New England Revolution
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Columbus Crew
-0.5
Kalshi implies 67% CLB win/cover prob vs book spread implied ~45% at +120 pricing
Ω Bottom Line
Kalshi 67% CLB win vs book 56% at -125 (+7.4 EV); pred market divergence with Bayesian alignment
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Columbus Crew
Line: -0.5
Kalshi implies 67% CLB win/cover prob vs book spread implied ~45% at +120 pricing
MONEYLINE
Columbus Crew
Prediction market divergence: Kalshi 67% CLB vs book 55.6% implied
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
MLS historical avg ~2.8 total goals, but no pace/xG data supports low 2.5 line
Game Analysis
Kalshi PMs price Columbus at 67% win vs DraftKings -125 implied 56%, creating 8.4% edge; no injuries or situational flags but data scarcity caps conviction. ML preferred over juiced -0.5 spread (EV 15.2 vs 1.6). Totals losing historically, fade with no pace/weather.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Carles Gil
New England Revolution
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
62%
Model projection as playmaker, low shot volume expected vs CLB defense
PROP ALERT
Diego Fagundez
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season projection low goals in tough matchup
PROP ALERT
Matt Turner
New England Revolution
Over 3.5 saves
58%
Expected CLB pressure leads to 3+ saves projection
PROP ALERT
Matt Polster
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
61%
Defensive mid, minimal shots projected
PROP ALERT
Andrew Farrell
New England Revolution
Over 0.0 shots_on_target
55%
Occasional set-piece threat
PROP ALERT
Damario Mcintosh
New England Revolution
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Wing projection vs strong CLB backline
PROP ALERT
Steven Moreira
Columbus Crew
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
FB overlaps limited vs NE press