Columbus Crew at Red Bull New York

MLS May 13, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

40% Lean

MONEYLINE

Red Bull New York

None

calibrated posterior 39.8% home win vs market 35.7% (+4.1pp); omega ML even vs market -120 away

Ω Bottom Line

Over 3.5 +21.6 EV (model 7.6 total vs 3.5 line); home ML +11.4 EV w/ whales ($285k extreme)

All OMEGA Picks

TOTAL

over

Line: 3.5

60%

calibrated 63.7% over 3.5 vs market 50% (+13.7pp); OMEGA total vs market 3.5, MC projects 6.6

MONEYLINE

Red Bull New York

40%

calibrated posterior 39.8% home win vs market 35.7% (+4.1pp); omega ML even vs market -120 away

Game Analysis

Omega ML +141 implies 41.5% for Red Bulls but Bayesian posterior 47.4% (+5.9pp edge); MC sims tight 3.2-3.3 score (67% under 7.5). Extreme whales $272k (93%) confirm home value despite moderate model agreement. Degraded data caps conviction.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Emil Forsberg Red Bull New York

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Model projects high scoring (3.8 exp home goals), Forsberg key attacker usage boost

PROP ALERT

Emil Forsberg Red Bull New York

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Pace-adjusted projection in omega high-total spot

PROP ALERT

Ethan Horvath Red Bull New York

Over 3.5 saves 62%

3.8 exp away goals drives save volume

PROP ALERT

Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty Red Bull New York

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Wing matchup favors shots in open game

PROP ALERT

Gustaf Beggren Red Bull New York

Over 0.5 assists 57%

Secondary creator benefits from pace

PROP ALERT

John McCarthy Red Bull New York

Under 2.5 saves 59%

Backup GK lower volume projection

PROP ALERT

Tim Parker Red Bull New York

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

CB limited attacking role

PROP ALERT

Emil Forsberg Red Bull New York

Over 0.5 assists 56%

Playmaker in high xG environment

PROP ALERT

Patrick Schulte Columbus Crew

Over 3.5 saves 62%

3.8 exp home goals vs young GK

PROP ALERT

Cesar Ruvalcaba Columbus Crew

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Forward projection in model high-total

PROP ALERT

Mohamed Farsi Columbus Crew

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

RB overlapping runs in pace-up spot

PROP ALERT

Rudy Camacho Columbus Crew

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

CB minimal shots despite minutes leader

PROP ALERT

André Gomes Columbus Crew

Over 0.5 assists 55%

Midfield projection with cascade usage

PROP ALERT

Steven Moreira Columbus Crew

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

FB contributions in open matchup

PROP ALERT

Malte Amundsen Columbus Crew

Under 0.5 assists 61%

Limited creator role projected

PROP ALERT

Patrick Schulte Columbus Crew

Under 4.0 saves 56%

Slight regression in high variance

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail