Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty

WNBA May 08, 2026 11:30 PM ET FINAL 75 - 106

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Connecticut Sun

9.5

Omega spread NY -2.5 vs market -9.5 (7pt edge); MC proj margin +4.3 home, ~64% away cover prob

Ω Bottom Line

Sun +9.5 +25EV: Omega -2.5 vs mkt -9.5, equal injuries mispriced; over 159.5 +4.9pp edge to 179 proj

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Connecticut Sun

Line: 9.5

62%

Omega spread NY -2.5 vs market -9.5 (7pt edge); MC proj margin +4.3 home, ~64% away cover prob

TOTAL

over

Line: 159.5

55%

Over posterior 54.9% (+4.9pp edge); OMEGA total vs market 159.5 (19.5pt gap), decomposed ratings 203

Game Analysis

Market -15.5 NY ignores net Sun injury edge (-20.7% vs -25%) and projects blowout, but Omega 90.8-88.1, MC 89.8-85.5 (+4.3 margin). Bayesian away ML edge +16.7pp, spread implies 78% Sun cover. Whales $53k NY but model/MC converge opposite; preseason variance noted.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Breanna Stewart New York Liberty

Over 21.5 points 62%

Model proj 23.2 adj for injuries/usage boost (Ionescu out); star carries depleted roster

PROP ALERT

Jonquel Jones New York Liberty

Over 9.5 rebounds 60%

Model proj 10.8; rebounding load up with multiple fronts out

PROP ALERT

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton New York Liberty

Over 12.0 points 58%

Model proj 13.1; increased role sans Sabally/Ionescu

PROP ALERT

Marine Johannes New York Liberty

Over 4.0 assists 57%

Model proj 4.6; playmaking vacuum with guards out

PROP ALERT

Julie Vanloo New York Liberty

Under 5.5 assists 59%

Model proj 4.8; limited minutes on depleted but competitive squad

PROP ALERT

Han Xu New York Liberty

Over 1.0 blocks 56%

Model proj 1.3; big vs Griner matchup

PROP ALERT

Marine Fauthoux New York Liberty

Under 6.5 points 55%

Model proj 5.8; bench role

PROP ALERT

Aubrey Griffin New York Liberty

Over 8.0 points 57%

Model proj 8.7; rookie minutes up

PROP ALERT

Brittney Griner Connecticut Sun

Over 18.5 points 63%

Model proj 20.1; focal point vs depleted NY frontcourt

PROP ALERT

Olivia Nelson-Ododa Connecticut Sun

Over 7.5 rebounds 61%

Model proj 8.4; rebound edge vs injured Liberty

PROP ALERT

Diamond Miller Connecticut Sun

Over 14.0 points 59%

Model proj 15.2; wing usage boost

PROP ALERT

Hailey Van Lith Connecticut Sun

Over 3.5 assists 58%

Model proj 4.1; guard duties up with Peddy out

PROP ALERT

Aneesah Morrow Connecticut Sun

Over 6.0 rebounds 56%

Model proj 6.6; frontcourt opportunity

PROP ALERT

Kennedy Burke Connecticut Sun

Under 9.0 points 55%

Model proj 8.2; limited role

PROP ALERT

Charlisse Leger-Walker Connecticut Sun

Over 2.5 assists 57%

Model proj 2.9; secondary playmaking

PROP ALERT

Gianna Kneepkens Connecticut Sun

Over 1.5 three_pointers 56%

Model proj 1.8; shooter volume

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