Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Dallas Stars
1.5
OMEGA spread vs market MIN -1.5 implies DAL +1.5 covers 50%+; model margin +0.4 with high edge confidence
Ω Bottom Line
MIN injury edge +12.6% in even matchup, 65% model over 5.5 total (+24 EV) despite DAL whales
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Dallas Stars
Line: 1.5
OMEGA spread vs market MIN -1.5 implies DAL +1.5 covers 50%+; model margin +0.4 with high edge confidence
MONEYLINE
Minnesota Wild
calibrated 55.3% home win (edge +0.3pp over market); injury net +12.6% home
TOTAL
over
Line: 5.5
Posterior 65.2% over (edge +15.2pp); MC projects 13.2 total, Omega 15.5
Game Analysis
Omega even spread (0.0) vs market Minn -1.5 + sharp 20.7% away edge + +29% EV on Dallas +1.5; net injuries favor Stars (-6.3%) despite whales home. Bayesian -4.7% away, PM extreme div; MC 49.3% home cover at even confirms value. Totals inflated model vs market but weak WR caps conf.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Kirill Kaprizov
Minnesota Wild
Over 0.5 goals
58%
Season leader 45G, home vs injured DAL D; model proj 0.7G
PROP ALERT
Kirill Kaprizov
Minnesota Wild
Over 3.5 shots_on_goal
60%
High volume shooter (89 SOG?), matchup vs weak DAL PK
PROP ALERT
Matt Boldy
Minnesota Wild
Over 0.5 points
57%
Model proj 0.9 pts; usage up with Stramel out
PROP ALERT
Joel Eriksson Ek
Minnesota Wild
Over 2.5 shots_on_goal
56%
Faceoff edge vs DAL; proj 3.0 SOG
PROP ALERT
Filip Gustavsson
Minnesota Wild
Over 26.5 saves
59%
DAL high shots proj; home ice, model 28 saves
PROP ALERT
Jason Robertson
Dallas Stars
Under 0.5 goals
57%
45G season but injuries cascade, MIN strong PK; proj 0.3G
PROP ALERT
Jason Robertson
Dallas Stars
Over 3.0 shots_on_goal
58%
96 SOG pace; volume up with Bastian out
PROP ALERT
Roope Hintz
Dallas Stars
Over 0.5 points
55%
High usage center; proj 0.8 pts despite injuries
PROP ALERT
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars
Under 28.5 saves
59%
High pace proj but MIN attack strong; model 26 saves