D.C. United at New York City FC

MLS May 03, 2026 07:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

New York City FC

-0.5

Model home win prob 59% vs -0.5 spread; extreme whales confirm despite juice

Ω Bottom Line

NYCFC -145 ML: 59% model prob + extreme $245k whales (82% conf) for marginal EV on stable line

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York City FC

Line: -0.5

58%

Model home win prob 59% vs -0.5 spread; extreme whales confirm despite juice

MONEYLINE

New York City FC

59%

calibrated 59% home win matches de-vigged line but whales ($245k extreme) boost to marginal +EV

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

55%

MLS avg ~2.8 goals pushes over 2.5 baseline; no pace/weather but default tilt

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior pegs NYC win at 59.2% matching devigged -145 ML, no model edge but extreme $245k whale volume (82% conf) on home adds confirmation. No injuries, travel, or situational flags; leaders like Fernández (0.8 gpg) project low total. Poor data quality caps conviction despite spread profitable in leans.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nicolás Fernández New York City FC

Over 0.5 goals 62%

8 goals in 10 matches; model projects 0.8 vs DC defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Maxi Morález New York City FC

Over 0.5 assists 60%

6 assists in 10; high-usage playmaker home projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Matthew Freese New York City FC

Over 3.0 saves 58%

Expected DC shots create save opps (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Thiago Martins New York City FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Defender low volume projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Tomas Romero New York City FC

Over 2.5 saves 56%

Backup GK volume if rotated (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Maxi Morález New York City FC

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Creative mid shots projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Kevin O'Toole New York City FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

FB low SOT projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Strahinja Tanasijevic New York City FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender minimal projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Sean Johnson D.C. United

Over 3.5 saves 61%

NYC attack projects high shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jared Stroud D.C. United

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Winger usage projection vs NYC (model)

PROP ALERT

Keisuke Kurokawa D.C. United

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Secondary attacker low goal projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Lucas Bartlett D.C. United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

CB minimal SOT (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Silvan Hefti D.C. United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

RB low volume (model)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Herrera D.C. United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Brandon Servania D.C. United

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Mid low assist projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Nikola Markovic D.C. United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Low usage projection (model)

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