D.C. United at Philadelphia Union

MLS April 18, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia Union

-0.5

MLS home teams cover -0.5 at 52% historical rate; PHI leaders show stronger scoring (Baribo 3G/6 matches)

Ω Bottom Line

PHI home ML -120 +3.1 EV on scoring edge (3G vs 1G leaders); data poor but ML tier profitable

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia Union

Line: -0.5

57%

MLS home teams cover -0.5 at 52% historical rate; PHI leaders show stronger scoring (Baribo 3G/6 matches)

MONEYLINE

Philadelphia Union

58%

Home ML breakeven 54.6%; our 57% prob exceeds by 2.4% on PHI's early scoring edge (3G leaders vs DC 1G)

Game Analysis

PHI -120 ML stable with 54.5% implied vs model 57% prob (+2.5% edge) from MLS home HCA and DCU low scoring (1G/7). Spread -0.5 mirrors ML value at -125 pricing. Totals under 2.5 lean on early season low goals (7 total from leaders), but cap conf due to N=0 calib and missing models.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Andre Blake Philadelphia Union

Over 3.5 saves 60%

Home GKs face 11.2 shots/game avg; PHI clean sheets boost volume

PROP ALERT

George Marks Philadelphia Union

Under 2.5 saves 58%

Backup GK lower volume; DC attack ranks bottom-10 xG

PROP ALERT

Olivier Mbaizo Philadelphia Union

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

RB attacking runs; 1.2 key passes/90

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Bedoya Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 assists 62%

Veteran mid declining creation; 0.4 key passes/90

PROP ALERT

Indiana Vassilev Philadelphia Union

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

High usage winger vs DC weak flank defense

PROP ALERT

Jesús Bueno Philadelphia Union

Over 0.5 assists 57%

Central playmaker; PHI home pace favors chances

PROP ALERT

Frankie Westfield Philadelphia Union

Over 0.5 assists 61%

2 assists in 7 matches; secondary creator role

PROP ALERT

Geiner Martínez Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 goals 64%

Defensive mid minimal finishing threat

PROP ALERT

Sean Johnson D.C. United

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Veteran GK vs PHI attack (Baribo threat); road games higher shots

PROP ALERT

Alex Bono D.C. United

Under 2.5 saves 56%

Backup lower volume expected

PROP ALERT

Jared Stroud D.C. United

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

High-volume winger; PHI defense vulnerable to counters

PROP ALERT

Keisuke Kurokawa D.C. United

Under 0.5 goals 63%

Midfielder low conversion; team xG underperforms

PROP ALERT

Silvan Hefti D.C. United

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Attacking RB overlaps

PROP ALERT

Aaron Herrera D.C. United

Under 0.5 assists 61%

Defender minimal contributions

PROP ALERT

Brandon Servania D.C. United

Over 0.5 assists 58%

CM chance creator in transition

PROP ALERT

Matti Peltola D.C. United

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Def mid no scoring threat

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