Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA May 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Cleveland Cavaliers

-3.5

Injuries hobble DET (-10.3% lambda adj) + whale extreme home consensus vs weak sharp away signal

Ω Bottom Line

CLE -3.5 (+3.1 EV) on DET -10% injury adj + $2.46M whale home steam; over 212.5 sharp RLM edge

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Cleveland Cavaliers

Line: -3.5

60%

Injuries hobble DET (-10.3% lambda adj) + whale extreme home consensus vs weak sharp away signal

TOTAL

over

Line: 212.5

58%

Sharp 23.6% edge + RLM on over; +75% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (50.8%)

Game Analysis

Pistons' Huerter out and LeVert D2D hands Cavs +10.3% net injury edge (~3 pts value on -3.5). Extreme whale consensus ($2.3M vol, 64% home) aligns with Bayesian 61.8% posterior boosted to 63.5%. Sharp money screams total over (23.6% edge + RLM), but model totals hit just 48.7% historically—lean cautiously.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 27.5 points 65%

Season-leading 27.9 PPG projection holds vs injured DET backcourt

PROP ALERT

Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 5.5 assists 62%

Team lead in AST; DET injuries boost playmaking opps

PROP ALERT

Evan Mobley Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 9.0 rebounds 64%

Team REB leader vs Duren-focused DET frontcourt

PROP ALERT

Jarrett Allen Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 8.5 rebounds 60%

Mobley usage overlap reduces board chances (model adj)

PROP ALERT

James Harden Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 18.5 points 61%

Secondary scoring vs DET injuries

PROP ALERT

Dennis Schroder Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 4.5 assists 59%

Bench spark in high-pace spot

PROP ALERT

Max Strus Cleveland Cavaliers

Over 2.0 three_pointers 58%

Shooter-friendly matchup projection

PROP ALERT

Larry Nance Jr. Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 4.5 rebounds 57%

Limited minutes behind Allen/Mobley

PROP ALERT

Cade Cunningham Detroit Pistons

Over 24.0 points 64%

Usage spike with Huerter OUT, LeVert DTD (+15% opp)

PROP ALERT

Cade Cunningham Detroit Pistons

Over 9.5 assists 65%

Team lead; backcourt injuries force more creation

PROP ALERT

Jalen Duren Detroit Pistons

Over 10.5 rebounds 63%

Team REB leader vs CLE frontcourt

PROP ALERT

Tobias Harris Detroit Pistons

Under 16.5 points 61%

Cade dominance reduces touches (model adj)

PROP ALERT

Duncan Robinson Detroit Pistons

Over 2.5 three_pointers 60%

Spot-up role in over-paced game

PROP ALERT

Paul Reed Detroit Pistons

Under 5.0 rebounds 58%

Backup to Duren limits opps

PROP ALERT

Marcus Sasser Detroit Pistons

Over 3.0 assists 57%

Injury cascade boosts bench playmaking

PROP ALERT

Javonte Green Detroit Pistons

Under 6.5 points 56%

Wing depth limits minutes

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