Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Red Wings
1.5
Net -15.6% injury impact on TB (Hedman IR critical D-man) boosts DET +1.5 cover to 62% vs fair 58.9%.
Ω Bottom Line
Hedman IR craters TB (-25% lambda), DET ML +170 +13 EV vs Kalshi 63% implied
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Red Wings
Line: 1.5
Net -15.6% injury impact on TB (Hedman IR critical D-man) boosts DET +1.5 cover to 62% vs fair 58.9%.
MONEYLINE
Detroit Red Wings
TB injuries (Hedman IR, Holmberg out) hit -25% team lambda vs DET -9.5%, our 60% DET win crushes 37% implied.
TOTAL
under
Line: 6.5
Sharp +4.2% edge on under (fair 52.5%), TB D injuries limit scoring despite Kucherov usage.
Game Analysis
Even matchup per MC (46% away win) but Tampa +153 ML offers value as our 46% prob beats breakeven; whales dump $339k extreme volume on home despite -25% injury hit (Hedman IR). Detroit gains net +12% from injuries but VERY_LOW model agreement caps edge. Pass totals with 45.4% under rate and historical weakness.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Nikita Kucherov
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 1.5 points
60%
Season-leading 128 pts, projects 1.8 vs DET weak D (model adj for TB injuries).
PROP ALERT
Nikita Kucherov
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 0.5 goals
58%
43 goals season, matchup boost vs DET penalty kill.
PROP ALERT
Nikita Kucherov
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 1.0 assists
57%
85 assists, high usage with Hedman out increasing PP time.
PROP ALERT
Nikita Kucherov
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 3.5 shots_on_goal
59%
Volume shooter, projects 3.8 in offensive spot.
PROP ALERT
Brayden Point
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 1.0 points
56%
High-line mate to Kucherov, injury cascade boosts ice time.
PROP ALERT
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 27.5 saves
55%
Elite goalie, DET pace projects 29 shots faced.
PROP ALERT
Steven Stamkos
Tampa Bay Lightning
Under 0.5 goals
55%
Age/injury fade, model 0.3 proj vs DET.
PROP ALERT
Anthony Cirelli
Tampa Bay Lightning
Over 0.5 points
55%
Checking line value in even matchup.
PROP ALERT
Alex DeBrincat
Detroit Red Wings
Over 1.0 points
59%
83 pts season, TB D depleted by Hedman/Raddysh out.
PROP ALERT
Alex DeBrincat
Detroit Red Wings
Over 0.5 goals
57%
40 goals, sniper edge vs weakened TB blue line.
PROP ALERT
Lucas Raymond
Detroit Red Wings
Over 0.5 assists
58%
51 assists, playmaker proj 0.7 vs TB injuries.
PROP ALERT
Dylan Larkin
Detroit Red Wings
Over 1.0 points
60%
Captain usage up with Rasmussen out, 1.2 proj.
PROP ALERT
Dylan Larkin
Detroit Red Wings
Over 2.5 shots_on_goal
56%
High volume, TB goalie fatigue potential.
PROP ALERT
Moritz Seider
Detroit Red Wings
Over 2.0 shots_on_goal
55%
D-man bomb threat, PP1 with injuries opposite.
PROP ALERT
Cam Talbot
Detroit Red Wings
Under 28.5 saves
55%
TB offense carries but model low shots in under spot.
PROP ALERT
Lucas Raymond
Detroit Red Wings
Over 0.5 points
57%
Synergy with DeBrincat, injury-boosted opps.