Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Ω
DDN SI PICK
58%
Lean
TOTAL
OVER
6.5
Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is 52.2% over vs a +102 retail price — the only quantified +EV cell on this board at +5.5% EV per $100.
Ω Bottom Line
Only number worth touching here: over 6.5 at +102 vs a 52.2% de-vigged fair = +5.5% EV, backed by the lone RLM/sharp divergence on the board.
All DDN SI Picks
TOTAL
over
Line: 6.5
Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is 52.2% over vs a +102 retail price — the only quantified +EV cell on this board at +5.5% EV per $100.
Game Analysis
The entire edge is Detroit's training room: Larkin, Appleton, Kasper and Edvinsson all on IR against Tampa losing only Gourde and depth pieces — a net +12.4% home lambda advantage. calibrated puts Tampa at 70.5% with whales ($51K, 97% home) and Kalshi echoing, but that's one source twice, not two sources. Detroit's 31-52 record when we pick them and NHL being on PAUSED status argue for PASS sizing across the board.