Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves

MLB April 30, 2026 04:15 PM ET FINAL 5 - 2

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Detroit Tigers

1.5

OMEGA spread vs market ATL -1.5/ -118 creates +EV on Tigers RL; sharp 19.3% divergence +46.5% EV

Ω Bottom Line

Tigers +1.5 sharp play (19% edge, omega 0.0 spread) + over 8.5 explosion (65% prob, +24 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Detroit Tigers

Line: 1.5

64%

OMEGA spread vs market ATL -1.5/ -118 creates +EV on Tigers RL; sharp 19.3% divergence +46.5% EV

MONEYLINE

Atlanta Braves

56%

calibrated 55.7% vs 54.1% implied (+1.6pp edge)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

60%

Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); OMEGA total & model 20.1 >> market 8.5

Game Analysis

Sharp money hammers home spread (13.1% edge) with Pinnacle fair value showing massive +47.5% EV on Braves -2.2 vs retail; extreme whale volume ($393k, 20 wallets) confirms home at 67%. Net injury edge +2.8% Braves despite IL lists; low-ERA duel (Elder 1.95/Skubal 2.72) caps 9.0 total. Data gaps cap conf at LEAN.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Michael Harris II Atlanta Braves

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Season .320 AVG leader, model projects 1.3 hits in neutral matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

8 HR season total regresses vs model 0.2 projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Under 1.5 rbis 56%

26 RBI leader but model 1.0 proj with injuries thinning lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Chris Sale Atlanta Braves

Over 7.5 strikeouts 59%

38 K leader, model 8.1 proj vs Tigers lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Bryce Elder Atlanta Braves

Over 4.5 strikeouts 55%

1.95 ERA leader, model 5.2 K proj (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Michael Harris II Atlanta Braves

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

.320 hitter projects 1.9 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Power bat model 1.7 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Chris Sale Atlanta Braves

Over 6.5 strikeouts 58%

Ace projects 7.5 K (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 59%

2.72 ERA ace, model 7.0 K vs Braves (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

6 HR season regresses to 0.3 proj (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 58%

.327 AVG leader projects 1.1 hits (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Under 1.5 rbis 55%

19 RBI leader but model 1.2 proj (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Power OF model 1.8 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 7.5 strikeouts 58%

Projects 7.8 K (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 total_bases 57%

High AVG projects 1.5 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Model 1.0 hits proj (model-generated)

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