Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Ω
OMEGA PICK
65%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
1.5
+EV fair value 64.4% DET +1.5 cover vs book-implied ~44% at +110
Ω Bottom Line
DET +1.5 +28 EV (64% model cover vs 44% implied) + extreme $190k whales fading BOS
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: 1.5
+EV fair value 64.4% DET +1.5 cover vs book-implied ~44% at +110
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
Book ML home implied 55.8% vs +EV fair 54.6%; whale consensus away
TOTAL
under
Line: 8.0
+EV fair under 50.5% vs neutral book; MLB totals historically unprofitable
Game Analysis
Omega ML shades Tigers -197 (66% implied) but MC 50.9% & Bayesian 58.2% Home win prob create +18% edge on Red Sox ML (+48 EV). Extreme whales on Tigers contradict (-3 conf); MC under 24.0 hits 67.2% (HIGH edge conf, totals weak). Injury net favors Home +3.7%, VERY_LOW model agreement caps conviction.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox
Over 0.5 hits
60%
Model projects 1.1 hits on .333 BA pace vs DET matchup
PROP ALERT
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox
Under 1.5 total_bases
58%
Projection 1.2 TB; volatile hitter, DET SP suppresses
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox
Under 0.5 rbis
57%
Season 3 RBI pace projects under vs strong DET arms
PROP ALERT
Garrett Crochet
Boston Red Sox
Over 5.5 strikeouts
60%
22 K season pace, model 6.2 vs DET lineup
PROP ALERT
Sonny Gray
Boston Red Sox
Over 4.5 strikeouts
55%
Recent 2 K low but projects 5.0 in sims
PROP ALERT
Connelly Early
Boston Red Sox
Over 3.5 strikeouts
56%
2.29 ERA projects moderate K vs DET
PROP ALERT
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox
Over 1.5 total_bases
59%
Hot .333 BA extends to multi-base projection
PROP ALERT
Colt Keith
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 total_bases
59%
Contact hitter projects multi-bag game
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 home_runs
60%
4 HR season pace low power projection