Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Ω
OMEGA PICK
59%
Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
-2.2
Sharp 14.2% divergence favors home cover + net injury edge (+3.7%)
Ω Bottom Line
Red Sox -2.2 +3.8 EV from 14.2% sharp spread edge + injury net (+3.7%), whales faded
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
Line: -2.2
Sharp 14.2% divergence favors home cover + net injury edge (+3.7%)
MONEYLINE
Boston Red Sox
calibrated 57.5% vs 56.3% implied + home injury advantage (-7.8% vs -11.5%)
Game Analysis
Whales drop $156k EXTREME volume on Tigers (70% conviction) vs Kalshi 69% Boston, our model fuses to 52% DET win prob (+21% edge). Injuries ding DET -11.5% lambda > BOS -7.8% but net minor home tilt; Poisson yields DET 4.7-4.3 (under 9). No pitchers/form limits to LEAN; ML > breakeven by slim margin.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox
Over 1.5 hits
58%
Model projection .333 BA leader vs Tigers pitching, high contact matchup
PROP ALERT
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox
Over 1.5 total_bases
56%
Power threat in leader stats, favorable vs Tigers staff
PROP ALERT
Sonny Gray
Boston Red Sox
Over 5.5 strikeouts
60%
Strong pitcher leader, Tigers high K% matchup projection
PROP ALERT
Garrett Crochet
Boston Red Sox
Over 6.0 strikeouts
57%
High IP leader, model projects volume vs Tigers order
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox
Under 0.5 rbis
55%
Day-to-day injury risk reduces projection
PROP ALERT
Connelly Early
Boston Red Sox
Over 4.5 strikeouts
56%
ERA leader projection holds in neutral matchup
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Over 6.5 strikeouts
60%
2.22 ERA ace leader vs Red Sox lineup