Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds

MLB April 26, 2026 05:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Cincinnati Reds

0.0

13% sharp spread edge to home + extreme institutional whale steam ($2.6M, 89% conviction)

Ω Bottom Line

Reds pick'em: 13% sharp spread edge + $2.6M extreme whale steam (89% home conviction) vs Tigers

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Cincinnati Reds

65%

13% sharp spread edge to home + extreme institutional whale steam ($2.6M, 89% conviction)

MONEYLINE

Cincinnati Reds

62%

Extreme whale consensus home (volume tier EXTREME) aligns with strong home recent form

TOTAL

under

Line: 9.0

58%

Market Consensus de-vigged fair 51.5% under despite model total discrepancy

Game Analysis

Sharp 18.3% spread edge + extreme $250k whale volume on Tigers -2.2 despite omega even line and VERY_LOW model agreement (Bayesian 53% vs MC 45% away win). MC 21.3 total crushes 8.5 market with HIGH edge conf. Equal -11% injuries both sides, no pitchers caps conviction; degraded data lowers all.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projects 1.2 hits on .303 BA pace in projected high-scoring game

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 steals 55%

Model projects 0.6 steals leveraging speed leader status

PROP ALERT

Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds

Under 1.5 hits 57%

Model projects 1.3 hits vs prospect adjustment

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

Model projects 6.2 K with 2.57 ERA in bullpen game spot

PROP ALERT

Rhett Lowder Cincinnati Reds

Over 4.5 strikeouts 56%

Model projects 5.0 K adjusted for matchup

PROP ALERT

Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Model projects 0.7 RBI as leader (29)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

Model projects 0.3 HR despite 9 leader, early season variance

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Over 5.5 strikeouts 58%

Model projects 6.1 K with 30 K leader pace

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Model projects 1.2 hits in high total spot

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Model projects 0.3 HR despite 6 leader, pitching injuries boost but variance

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

Model projects 0.6 RBI as 19 leader

PROP ALERT

Casey Mize Detroit Tigers

Over 6.0 strikeouts 59%

Model projects 6.5 K with 2.51 ERA in weak bullpen game

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 hits 55%

Model projects 1.1 hits on .333 BA pace

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Model projects 0.9 hits adjusted for matchup

PROP ALERT

Casey Mize Detroit Tigers

Over 6.0 strikeouts 60%

Model projects 6.6 K vs Reds lineup

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Model projects 1.8 total bases in offense-friendly projection

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