Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

MLB May 09, 2026 11:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Kansas City Royals

-2.2

Strong sharp divergence 14.5% on Royals spread +49.4% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (38.8% home cover)

Ω Bottom Line

Royals -2.2 spread +49.4% EV from 14.5% sharp edge vs Pinnacle fair value, whales Tigers but sharp wins

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Kansas City Royals

Line: -2.2

60%

Strong sharp divergence 14.5% on Royals spread +49.4% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (38.8% home cover)

MONEYLINE

Detroit Tigers

58%

Extreme whale volume $152k (88% confidence) on Tigers despite market

TOTAL

under

Line: 8.5

55%

Pitcher leaders Wacha 3.05 ERA, Skubal 2.70 ERA suggest low scoring

Game Analysis

Royals ML market-implied 58.5% matches posterior but -141 juiced beyond breakeven; sharp 14.5% spread edge home with +49% EV vs Pinnacle fair (38.8% cover). Extreme $152k whales 88% Tigers counters but default sharp Pinnacle. Low ERAs (Skubal 2.70, Wacha 3.05) favor under 8.5 amid equal injuries.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Bobby Witt Jr. Kansas City Royals

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection .298 BA leader vs Tigers pitching, home split boost

PROP ALERT

Vinnie Pasquantino Kansas City Royals

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

18 RBI leader, projected usage in cleanup spot

PROP ALERT

Carter Jensen Kansas City Royals

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

6 HR pace but low projection vs Skubal-type ERA

PROP ALERT

Michael Wacha Kansas City Royals

Over 4.5 strikeouts 57%

3.05 ERA leader, Tigers K-prone matchup

PROP ALERT

Bobby Witt Jr. Kansas City Royals

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

High-usage SS, model projects multi-hit game

PROP ALERT

Vinnie Pasquantino Kansas City Royals

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Consistent contact hitter in Royals lineup

PROP ALERT

Carter Jensen Kansas City Royals

Over 1.0 total_bases 55%

Power projection but capped by matchup

PROP ALERT

Michael Wacha Kansas City Royals

Under 5.5 strikeouts 56%

Conservative projection, Tigers low-K lineup

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 59%

2.70 ERA ace vs Royals contact hitters

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 57%

6 HR power, projects hit vs Wacha

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

26 RBI leader, lineup protection

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

.299 BA leader, favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Under 7.5 strikeouts 56%

Witt/Wacha era matchup limits Ks

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Road split adjustment vs Royals staff

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Catcher production model projection

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Contact skills vs home pitching

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