Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Ω
OMEGA PICK
56%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
2.2
calibrated 56.3% Tigers cover +2.2 vs market 50%; OMEGA spread shows 2.2pt edge
Ω Bottom Line
Tigers +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5EV): OMEGA even spread + extreme whales fade juiced Royals
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: 2.2
calibrated 56.3% Tigers cover +2.2 vs market 50%; OMEGA spread shows 2.2pt edge
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
calibrated 65.2% over vs market 50% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total vs market 8.5
Game Analysis
Models crush Royals -2.2 with 56.3% Tigers cover posterior (+6.3pp EV) vs OMEGA even spread; extreme $155k whales + prediction mkt 52.5% away confirm sharp fade. Total 8.5 obliterated by 65% over posterior, MC ~19.7 score, OMEGA 22.5. Equal injuries, no situational edges but Bayesian + MC converge away.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City Royals
Over 1.0 hits
58%
Season .298 avg vs model line; high-usage leadoff
PROP ALERT
Vinnie Pasquantino
Kansas City Royals
Under 0.5 home_runs
55%
18 season HR but low power vs Tigers pitching
PROP ALERT
Carter Jensen
Kansas City Royals
Over 0.5 home_runs
57%
6 HR pace suggests model over line
PROP ALERT
Michael Wacha
Kansas City Royals
Over 4.5 strikeouts
59%
3.05 ERA leader, Tigers weak vs RHP
PROP ALERT
Cole Ragans
Kansas City Royals
Under 5.5 strikeouts
56%
Day-to-day injury risk reduces volume
PROP ALERT
Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City Royals
Over 1.5 total_bases
60%
Model proj high usage in neutral matchup