Detroit Tigers at New York Mets

MLB May 12, 2026 11:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

New York Mets

-1.5

Strong sharp divergence 15% favors home run line cover vs retail pricing

Ω Bottom Line

Mets -1.5 lean: 15% sharp edge + extreme whales ($744k) on home despite 0% model edge

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Mets

Line: -1.5

60%

Strong sharp divergence 15% favors home run line cover vs retail pricing

MONEYLINE

New York Mets

60%

Extreme whale volume $744k (22 profitable wallets) on home despite 0% calibrated edge

TOTAL

under

Line: 8.0

55%

Market Consensus fair value under 51.9% with totals historically losing (reduce conf 5pts)

Game Analysis

Tigers get +11.2pp Bayesian edge (55.2% posterior vs Kalshi 44%) from injuries (Mets -16.1% > Tigers -6.9%) and MC 48.9% Away win on 9.0-9.5 score. Extreme whale volume on Mets but only 60% conf splits; under 22.5 crushes at 81.8%. Degraded data caps at Lean.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Riley Greene Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Model projection .317 BA leads team; standard matchup adjustment

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Team HR leader (6); projection favors multi-hit game

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

RBI leader (26); model sees lineup protection boost

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 62%

Team ERA leader 2.70; projection vs est Mets lineup

PROP ALERT

Bo Bichette Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Model projection consistent contact hitter

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 56%

.236 BA team leader; model home projection

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

5 HR season total low per-game rate; regression model

PROP ALERT

Nolan McLean New York Mets

Over 4.5 strikeouts 58%

57 K season pace; model starter projection

PROP ALERT

Clay Holmes New York Mets

Under 1.5 strikeouts 57%

Reliever 1.86 ERA leader but low K/9 projection

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Under 1.5 total_bases 60%

Power bias but model sees single-heavy game

PROP ALERT

Riley Greene Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 hits 59%

Hot .317 BA; extended projection

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

Cleanup projection with 6 HR power

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Under 1.0 total_bases 55%

Catcher matchup model conservative

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 6.0 strikeouts 60%

Dominant 2.70 ERA projects high K volume

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 58%

RBI producer model sees base hit

PROP ALERT

Clay Holmes New York Mets

Under 0.5 saves 55%

4 saves low pace; non-close projection

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