Detroit Tigers at New York Mets
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets
0.0
Omega spread at 0.0 vs market implying Tigers edge, but sharp money and RLM favor Mets
Ω Bottom Line
Over 8.0 +15.2pp Bayesian edge, MC 9.9-9.6 avg despite low market total; Tigers ML slim +1.8pp but sharps contra on Mets
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
New York Mets
Omega spread at 0.0 vs market implying Tigers edge, but sharp money and RLM favor Mets
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.0
Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0% (+15.2pp edge); MC projects 9.9-9.6 avg 19.5 runs
Game Analysis
Bayesian posterior pegs Mets at 51.5% win prob in even matchup, confirmed by $609k extreme whale volume (institutional tier, 21 wallets). Injuries ding Mets harder (-12.9% lambda vs Tigers -6.9%), favoring Tigers +1.5 cover (62% model) and under 9.0 total. Moneylines profitable in low tiers (61.5% Lean), anchors home ML lean despite poor data (41% quality).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.0 hits
58%
Riley Greene .315 BA, model projection over 1.0 vs Mets pitching
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Over 6.5 strikeouts
62%
Skubal 2.70 ERA leads staff, projects 7+ K vs Mets
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 home_runs
55%
Dingler 7 HR pace low, under in projection
PROP ALERT
Bo Bichette
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
Bichette consistent, projects over vs Mets
PROP ALERT
Francisco Alvarez
New York Mets
Over 0.5 hits
56%
Alvarez .241 BA day-to-day but likely plays, model over
PROP ALERT
Mark Vientos
New York Mets
Under 0.5 home_runs
59%
Vientos 5 HR, under projection in matchup