Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
1.5
Away cover posterior 53.9% (edge +3.9pp) with Omega line at 0.0 vs market -1.5; the 1.5 runs of insurance significantly increases cover probability above the moneyline
Ω Bottom Line
Tigers +123 offers +8.4 EV per $100 vs Bayesian posterior — market is overrating Yankees without Stanton, Grisham, and Fried; Tigers spread +1.5 at -110 is the safer entry
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated +7.9pp edge favoring Tigers (posterior 48.2% vs market 40.3%) with strong model disagreement against the market favorite
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: 1.5
Away cover posterior 53.9% (edge +3.9pp) with Omega line at 0.0 vs market -1.5; the 1.5 runs of insurance significantly increases cover probability above the moneyline
TOTAL
under
Line: 7.5
calibrated for under is 34.8% (edge -15.2pp) — this is a strong anti-OVER signal, but the confidence is reduced because of the massive Omega total (22.5) which suggests extreme model uncertainty
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion shows 8pp edge on Yankees despite market and whale consensus favoring Tigers. Monte Carlo projects 77.2% under on inflated 22.5 total. Data quality degraded, so confidence capped at LEAN. The sharpest signal is the under, where model agreement is highest.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 hits
60%
Model projection: Greene is the Tigers' most consistent bat (.285 avg, 12 HR). Facing a depleted Yankees rotation missing Max Fried (15-Day-IL), Greene should see at least 4-5 ABs. Over 0.5 hits is highly probable, but the -110 on 1.5 hits is a sharp line; we project a 60% hit rate. This is a low-conviction prop due to missing pitcher data and lineup confirmation.
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 1.5 hits
62%
Rice is the Yankees' top offensive threat (22 HR, 53 RBI). With Stanton and Grisham on the IL, Rice's role is elevated. He should get 4+ plate appearances against a Tigers pitching staff also missing its ace (Verlander). Over 1.5 hits at +120 is a fair line; matchup-adjusted projection gives him a 64% chance.
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 total_bases
58%
Dingler leads the Tigers in power numbers. In a game where both staffs are injury-depleted, extra-base hits are more likely. Over 1.5 total bases at -110 projects a 57% hit rate given his recent form and the weakened opponent pitching. Low confidence due to missing bullpen data.
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
57%
Rice's power is elite (22 HR), and he faces a Tigers pitching staff missing its best arm (Verlander). The over on 0.5 HR at +185 is a speculative play. At 57% confidence, the edge is thin but real — the line implies a ~35% probability, and we project 40%. Low unit play.