Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees
-1.5
Sharp money signal strong (14.8% edge on home spread). Whale volume $1.67M 85% on home. Market Consensus de-vigged fair value on home spread is 36.8% vs market 50.0% — actually indicates books see home as less likely to cover -1.5. This creates a contrarian situation: sharps and prediction markets differ sharply. Data quality is degraded so confidence is low.
Ω Bottom Line
Poisson says 22.5 runs, books say 7.0 — 15.5-run gap is absurd. OVER 7.0 at 12.8% EV with data caveats.
All OMEGA Picks
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.0
scoring model models project 22.5 combined runs — a 15.5-run discrepancy vs market total of 7.0. calibrated posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0%. This is the most extreme model-vs-market gap on the board.
SPREAD
New York Yankees
Line: -1.5
Sharp money signal strong (14.8% edge on home spread). Whale volume $1.67M 85% on home. Market Consensus de-vigged fair value on home spread is 36.8% vs market 50.0% — actually indicates books see home as less likely to cover -1.5. This creates a contrarian situation: sharps and prediction markets differ sharply. Data quality is degraded so confidence is low.
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated away posterior 52.4% vs market 42.2% (+10.2pp edge). scoring model win probability 53.3% (simulation) vs market 42.2%. The model sees the Tigers as undervalued dogs.
Game Analysis
Degraded data forces cautious approach. Bayesian fusion strongly favors over 7.5 (+15.2pp edge) despite low model agreement. Spread pick (Tigers +2.0) has slight model edge but sharp money and whales heavily on home side, creating conflict. Moneyline play on Tigers shows positive EV but confidence too low to recommend. Synthesizing, the over is the highest-conviction play due to large edge, though historical total performance warns against overconfidence.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 hits
60%
Riley Greene is the highest average hitter on Tigers (.285). In a Poisson-projected high-scoring game (22.5 runs), there will be more at-bats and more opportunities. Cap 60 due to degraded data and no pitcher matchup info.
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 2.5 total_bases
58%
Ben Rice leads Yankees in AVG (.269), HR (22), and RBI (53). In a projected high-scoring game, the over on total bases is plausible. Cap 58 — no pitcher data.