Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
68%
Strong
SPREAD
New York Yankees
-1.5
Sharp vs Public shows 13.8% edge on home spread with strong signal; +EV analysis shows +44.2% EV on home spread at Sharp Action; whale signals show 80% confidence on home side with $1.5M+ volume
Ω Bottom Line
Yankees -1.5 at +265 Bovada shows +44.2% EV with sharp money convergence and $1.5M whale volume — the strongest signal on the board despite degraded data quality
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
New York Yankees
Line: -1.5
Sharp vs Public shows 13.8% edge on home spread with strong signal; +EV analysis shows +44.2% EV on home spread at Sharp Action; whale signals show 80% confidence on home side with $1.5M+ volume
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
calibrated posterior shows 53.6% away win probability vs market 41.1% — a +12.4pp edge. simulation simulation gives Tigers 54.2% win probability. Sharp money side is away on moneyline (+0.5% edge).
TOTAL
over
Line: 9.5
calibrated posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0% — a +15.2pp edge. simulation simulation projects total of 19.8 (9.4 + 10.4), well above the 9.5 market line. OMEGA independent line projects total of 22.5.
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion indicates strong value on over 8.0 with +26.9% EV, supported by Monte Carlo projections near 19 total. Spread and ML picks have conflicting sharp signals and lower confidence. Data quality is degraded due to missing weather, pitching, and injury details, reducing overall reliability.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers
Over 0.5 hits
60%
Riley Greene is the Tigers' leading hitter (.288 avg) and the team's most consistent bat. Against a Yankees pitching staff missing key arms, Greene should get multiple at-bats. Model projection: 1+ hit is likely. Confidence capped at 60 due to unvalidated roster data.
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 hits
60%
Ben Rice leads the Yankees in batting average (.268), home runs (23), and RBIs (54). As the team's primary offensive threat with Stanton and Chisholm banged up, Rice should see plenty of RBI opportunities. Model projection: 1+ hit. Confidence capped at 60 due to unvalidated roster data.