Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks

NHL May 01, 2026 02:00 AM ET FINAL 2 - 5

Ω OMEGA PICK

67% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Anaheim Ducks

1.5

+25.4% EV on Ducks +1.5 at retail -115 vs Market Consensus fair 67.1% cover prob

Ω Bottom Line

Over 6.5 +15pp edge (65% posterior, 14+ proj total); Ducks ML/PL +EV confirmed extreme whales/sharps/PM vs Edm juice

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Anaheim Ducks

Line: 1.5

67%

+25.4% EV on Ducks +1.5 at retail -115 vs Market Consensus fair 67.1% cover prob

MONEYLINE

Anaheim Ducks

60%

calibrated 48.1% exceeds devigged breakeven 47.6% by 0.5pp

TOTAL

over

Line: 6.5

60%

Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC avg total 14.1, Dixon-Coles 19.2

Game Analysis

Sharps hammering Ducks +1.5 (15.2% edge, +26.4% EV at Pinnacle fair) with RLM amid whale extreme volume ($183k home) and PM 57% home vs books 46.5%. Injuries hit Edmonton harder (-15.8% vs -6.3%), net +9.5% home; MC/Omega even spread (0.0) crushes market -1.5. Model total 19.0 vs 7.0 screams over value despite historical total fade.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Season 41 goals, high usage vs Edmonton defense allowing 3.2 GA recent

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 1.5 hockey_points 60%

69 points season, model projects 1.7 in high pace matchup

PROP ALERT

Jackson LaCombe Anaheim Ducks

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Defenseman avg 2.4 SOG, home ice boost +0.3

PROP ALERT

Mason McTavish Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 hockey_points 57%

Center usage up with injuries, projects 0.8 pts

PROP ALERT

Troy Terry Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Recent slump 0.3 GPG vs Edm PK strong

PROP ALERT

Lukas Dostal Anaheim Ducks

Over 27.5 saves 59%

Expected SOG 29 vs Oilers shot volume

PROP ALERT

Frank Vatrano Anaheim Ducks

Over 3.0 shots_on_goal 55%

High volume shooter 3.1 avg home

PROP ALERT

Alex Killorn Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 hockey_points 56%

Veteran projects 0.7 pts in projected high total

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.5 hockey_points 60%

138 points season leader, model 2.1 vs Ducks D

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 0.5 goals 59%

48 goals, projects 0.8 in favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 4.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Elite volume 4.7 avg away

PROP ALERT

Leon Draisaitl Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.0 hockey_points 57%

High usage duo with McDavid boosts to 1.3

PROP ALERT

Zach Hyman Edmonton Oilers

Over 0.5 goals 56%

Netfront projects 0.6 vs Ducks weak D

PROP ALERT

Evan Bouchard Edmonton Oilers

Over 0.5 hockey_points 55%

PP specialist 0.7 projected

PROP ALERT

Stuart Skinner Edmonton Oilers

Under 25.5 saves 55%

Ducks low shot volume projects 24 SOG

PROP ALERT

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Edmonton Oilers

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Consistent 2.6 avg in high total spot

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