Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth

NHL April 08, 2026 01:30 AM ET FINAL 5 - 6

Ω OMEGA PICK

59% Lean

SPREAD

Edmonton Oilers

+142

Omega spread 0.0 vs market -142 implies 142pt edge to away; MC shows 45.6% away cover

Ω Bottom Line

Omega even spread vs -142 market = 142pt edge to Edmonton +120 dog; MC 45.6% cover despite altitude

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Edmonton Oilers

Line: +142

59%

Omega spread 0.0 vs market -142 implies 142pt edge to away; MC shows 45.6% away cover

MONEYLINE

Edmonton Oilers

62%

Breakeven 45.5% vs our MC 45.6% away win; NHL dogs hit more often in low-scoring variance

Game Analysis

Edmonton holds slim 60% win prob with McDavid carrying massively depleted forward group (Hyman/Draisaitl IR out), projecting 3.0-2.0 model score (5.0 total). Utah counters with Keller/Guenther but Weegar DTD + forwards out limits ceiling; recent H2H model whiffed 0-2 on home. Moneylines profitable in lean tier but data quality caps all at toss-up; props lean McDavid shots/PP usage.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.5 points 60%

McDavid leads with 43G/83A/126P; usage spikes with Draisaitl/Hyman out

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.0 assists 58%

83 assists lead team; primary playmaker on depleted roster

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 57%

High volume shooter; altitude may boost attempts

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Over 1.0 points 59%

Team leader 53G/78A; benefits from Edmonton missing top wingers

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Over 0.5 assists 60%

78 assists #1 on team; home ice + altitude usage boost

PROP ALERT

Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth

Over 0.5 goals 56%

38 goals team lead; powerplay threat vs Edmonton PK

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 0.5 goals 58%

43 goals despite injuries; volume king

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

High volume at home; altitude favors shooters

PROP ALERT

Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Goal scorer racks shots; matchup edge

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.5 hockey_points 59%

126 points NHL lead; carries depleted Oilers

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Over 1.0 hockey_points 58%

Home altitude boost for top line

PROP ALERT

Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth

Over 2.0 shots_on_target 56%

Sniper profile fits high-altitude game

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