Eintracht Frankfurt at Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga May 08, 2026 06:30 PM ET FINAL 2 - 3

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Borussia Dortmund

-0.5

calibrated home win prob 58.3% on -0.5 equivalent despite -150 juice

Ω Bottom Line

Dortmund ML (-140) model posterior 58.3% = fair value, lean home (EV 0, vs Dortmund 3-0)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Borussia Dortmund

Line: -0.5

58%

calibrated home win prob 58.3% on -0.5 equivalent despite -150 juice

MONEYLINE

Borussia Dortmund

58%

Posterior exactly matches devigged market prior at 58.3% home win prob

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

55%

Bundesliga avg ~2.9 goals/game, line 3.5 offers value (totals historically losing 47.4% lean tier)

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior locks home ML at 67.7% matching market but zero edge on -210 juice—spread +115 implies soft 46.5% cover prob while Dortmund's 20-7-5 form projects 52% win-by-2+. No situational edges or injuries, poor data caps all conf. Totals weak historically, slight over lean on Bundesliga scoring.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Season 15 goals/31 matches (0.48 gpg), home favorite usage boost (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

High volume striker vs Frankfurt (model projection, no matchup data)

PROP ALERT

Gregor Kobel Borussia Dortmund

Over 3.0 saves 60%

84 saves season avg ~2.6 spg, Frankfurt attacks warrant 3+ (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Julian Ryerson Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 assists 57%

13 assists/29 matches (0.45 avg), defender role limits upside (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Under 1.5 goals 62%

Low season gpg caps multi-goal games (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Gregor Kobel Borussia Dortmund

Under 4.5 saves 55%

Dortmund clean sheet potential home (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Julian Ryerson Borussia Dortmund

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

RB overlapping runs (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Under 2.5 shots_on_target 56%

Efficiency focus (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 0.5 goals 59%

10 goals/20 matches (0.5 gpg) but road underdog vs Dortmund (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Farès Chaïbi Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 0.5 assists 60%

9 assists/26 (0.35 avg), tough matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Michael Zetterer Eintracht Frankfurt

Over 4.0 saves 57%

51 saves season, Dortmund attack forces volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

Road suppression (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Farès Chaïbi Eintracht Frankfurt

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Usage in attack (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Michael Zetterer Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 5.5 saves 56%

Dortmund efficiency (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 1.5 goals 61%

Low multi-goal rate (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Farès Chaïbi Eintracht Frankfurt

Under 1.5 assists 62%

Season low volume (model projection)

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