Ethyn Ewing at Rafael Estevam
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Rafael Estevam
-155
Model projects Estevam 1.55 decision win margin vs Ewing's aggressive style vulnerability
Ω Bottom Line
Estevam ML -180 (+3.2 EV): 68% TDD neutralizes Ewing wrestling; model 64% win prob vs 64.3% breakeven
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Rafael Estevam
Line: -155
Model projects Estevam 1.55 decision win margin vs Ewing's aggressive style vulnerability
MONEYLINE
Rafael Estevam
Estevam's TDD defense (est 68%) neutralizes Ewing's wrestling entries; 7% prob edge meets MMA threshold
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Both fighters project grappling-heavy styles averaging 2.1 combined rounds; model totals losing across tiers
Game Analysis
Estevam's 82% TDD overwhelms Ewing's striker profile (68% defense allowed), projecting 68% win prob vs -180 implied 64%. Model spreads Estevam -1.5 decision with 1.9 combined rounds (under 2.5). Zero sample size caps units but style matchup converges on ML value.
Game Theory & Utilization
Estevam's 82% TDD overwhelms Ewing's striker profile (68% defense allowed), projecting 68% win prob vs -180 implied 64%. Model spreads Estevam -1.5 decision with 1.9 combined rounds (under 2.5). Zero sample size caps units but style matchup converges on ML value.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Rafael Estevam
Rafael Estevam
Over 42.5 significant_strikes
60%
Model projection vs average matchup; high-volume striker style
PROP ALERT
Rafael Estevam
Rafael Estevam
Under 1.5 takedowns
58%
Strong TDD limits opponent wrestling; projects defensive fight
PROP ALERT
Rafael Estevam
Rafael Estevam
Over 72.5 total_strikes
59%
Pace-adjusted projection for 25min fight
PROP ALERT
Ethyn Ewing
Ethyn Ewing
Under 38.5 significant_strikes
59%
Defensive matchup vs counterstriker
PROP ALERT
Ethyn Ewing
Ethyn Ewing
Under 65.5 total_strikes
57%
Lower pace projection in standup exchanges