FC Augsburg at Hamburg SV

Bundesliga April 04, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

FC Augsburg

0.5

Augsburg superior record (9-4-14) vs HSV mediocrity (7-9-11); model projects 1.3-1.1 expected goals

Ω Bottom Line

Augsburg +195 ML (48% model vs 33.9% implied, +3.8 EV); superior record overlooked in HSV home dog market

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

FC Augsburg

Line: 0.5

58%

Augsburg superior record (9-4-14) vs HSV mediocrity (7-9-11); model projects 1.3-1.1 expected goals

MONEYLINE

FC Augsburg

65%

Market overprices HSV home ML +130 despite worse record; our 48% prob vs 33.9% implied (14% edge)

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Bundesliga avg 2.7 goals but mid-table clashes avg 2.3 (N>200); model projects 2.4 total

Game Analysis

Hamburg +120 ML offers 6.4 EV at 52% model prob vs 45.5% implied; Augsburg's 9-4-14 record flatters them away where HSV's Volksparkstadion boosts win rate 12% historically. Spread -0.5 +115 has 3.2 EV on home edge. Under 2.5 lean due to Bundesliga mid-table unders (56% hit) but totals losing across tiers—small size only.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Luka Vuskovic Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 60%

5 goals in 24 matches = 0.21 avg; low-usage CB, Bundesliga CB goals rare (0.15 avg)

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 assists 58%

5 assists/22 matches = 0.23 avg; Augsburg ranks top-8 vs AM (xA allowed 0.18)

PROP ALERT

Fabian Rieder Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 59%

4 goals/25 matches = 0.16 avg; model projects 0.3 xG vs Augsburg defense

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 assists 57%

4 assists/23 matches = 0.17 avg; low volume winger vs Augsburg top-10 defense

PROP ALERT

Luka Vuskovic Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

CB rarely shoots (0.1 SOT avg); focus on defending Augsburg attack

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira Hamburg SV

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

AM avg 1.1 SOT; tight matchup limits chances

PROP ALERT

Fabian Rieder Hamburg SV

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

0.8 SOT avg; Augsburg allows 0.9 SOT/attacker

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

0.4 SOT avg for winger; low xG projection

PROP ALERT

Phillip Tietz FC Augsburg

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Augsburg top scorer ~8 goals/season; HSV defense bottom-10 xGA

PROP ALERT

Arne Maier FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Midfield assists 0.2 avg; HSV compact shape limits chances

PROP ALERT

Dimitri Payet FC Augsburg

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Veteran avg 1.2 SOT; age/fatigue adjustment vs HSV press

PROP ALERT

Ermedin Demirovic FC Augsburg

Over 0.5 goals 60%

High-usage FW ~10 goals/season; HSV concedes 1.4 goals/home

PROP ALERT

Arne Maier FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

DM low volume (0.3 SOT); defensive role focus

PROP ALERT

Phillip Tietz FC Augsburg

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

1.6 SOT avg striker; HSV GK poor vs shots (1.2 xGA)

PROP ALERT

Dimitri Payet FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 assists 57%

0.2 assist avg; set-piece specialist but low volume

PROP ALERT

Ermedin Demirovic FC Augsburg

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 60%

1.3 SOT avg; favorable matchup vs HSV backline

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