FC Cincinnati at Chicago Fire FC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
FC Cincinnati
0.5
Omega spread even (0.0) vs market CHI -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to CIN +0.5; model sims away cover +0.0 at 42.7%
Ω Bottom Line
Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 3.5 (+13.7pp over edge); CIN +290 ML 44% model prob w/ whale backing
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
FC Cincinnati
Line: 0.5
Omega spread even (0.0) vs market CHI -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to CIN +0.5; model sims away cover +0.0 at 42.7%
MONEYLINE
FC Cincinnati
calibrated 44.2% away win vs devigged market 41.7% (+2.5pp edge); model 42.7% away win
TOTAL
over
Line: 3.5
calibrated over 3.5 posterior 63.7% vs market 50% (+13.7pp edge); OMEGA total vs market 3.5 (4pt edge)
Game Analysis
Omega Poisson+ELO projects even 3.8-3.8 goals (total 7.6) vs market 3.5, Bayesian over 3.5 edge +13.7pp with MC under 7.5 just 34.7%. Cincinnati ML undervalued at +290 (44.2% posterior vs 25.6% implied), confirmed by moderate whales ($19.8k, 96% conf) and omega even ML. Spread edge to CIN +0.5 off 0.5pt omega discrepancy despite home 5-2-2 record.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Chris Brady
Chicago Fire FC
Over 3.5 saves
60%
Model projection vs high-scoring matchup (omega 7.5 total)
PROP ALERT
Anton Saletros
Chicago Fire FC
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
55%
Home mid usage in pace-up spot
PROP ALERT
Andrew Gutman
Chicago Fire FC
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
58%
LB limited shots vs Cincy attack