FC Cincinnati at Red Bull New York
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
FC Cincinnati
0.5
Omega spread 0.0 vs market RBNY -0.5 creates 0.5pt value on CIN +0.5
Ω Bottom Line
Under 2.5 (+8.4 EV): omega 13.0 total vs market 2.5 on Poisson 6.4-6.4 explosion mismatch
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
FC Cincinnati
Line: 0.5
Omega spread 0.0 vs market RBNY -0.5 creates 0.5pt value on CIN +0.5
MONEYLINE
Red Bull New York
Home field + market pricing (-105) vs omega +252 implies overreaction to CIN ML
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Omega total 13.0 vs market 2.5 = 10.5pt overprojection on under (Poisson 6.4-6.4 expected goals)
Game Analysis
Omega Poisson/ELO pegs even matchup at 6.4-6.4 goals (spread 0.0) vs market RBNY -0.5, creating value on FC Cincy +0.5 (-130) and ML +230. Total massively mispriced at 2.5 vs model 13.0. No injuries or situational flags; even records 2-1-2 vs 2-0-3.
Game Theory & Utilization
Omega Poisson/ELO pegs even matchup at 6.4-6.4 goals (spread 0.0) vs market RBNY -0.5, creating value on FC Cincy +0.5 (-130) and ML +230. Total massively mispriced at 2.5 vs model 13.0. No injuries or situational flags; even records 2-1-2 vs 2-0-3.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Emil Forsberg
Red Bull New York
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
62%
Model projection as high-usage midfielder vs Cincy defense (season avg adj for matchup)
PROP ALERT
Tim Parker
Red Bull New York
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
58%
CB set piece threat; home games boost projection
PROP ALERT
Gustaf Beggren
Red Bull New York
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Limited starter minutes; omega pace favors low output
PROP ALERT
Dylan Nealis
Red Bull New York
Over 0.0 shots_on_target
55%
Occasional long shots from RB position
PROP ALERT
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
Red Bull New York
Under 0.5 assists
59%
Wingback low creation role vs Cincy backline
PROP ALERT
Ethan Horvath
Red Bull New York
Over 3.5 saves
64%
Omega 6.4 xG away projects high shot volume
PROP ALERT
Evander
FC Cincinnati
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
63%
Key attacker usage spikes in omega high-pace model
PROP ALERT
Miles Robinson
FC Cincinnati
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
CB corners/set pieces at home venue equiv
PROP ALERT
Matt Miazga
FC Cincinnati
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
61%
Limited attacking returns vs RBNY attack
PROP ALERT
Roman Celentano
FC Cincinnati
Over 3.0 saves
65%
Road game + omega 6.4 xG home forces volume
PROP ALERT
Alvas Powell
FC Cincinnati
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Defensive RB low volume projection