FC Cologne at St. Pauli

Bundesliga April 17, 2026 06:30 PM ET FINAL 1 - 1

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

St. Pauli

0.5

St. Pauli +0.5 covers on win/draw (our 52% prob vs 42.6% breakeven) with home edge in low-scoring relegation spot

Ω Bottom Line

St. Pauli +180 ML value (42% our prob vs 35.7% implied, +14.8 EV) in home dog spot vs road-fading Cologne

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

St. Pauli

Line: 0.5

58%

St. Pauli +0.5 covers on win/draw (our 52% prob vs 42.6% breakeven) with home edge in low-scoring relegation spot

MONEYLINE

St. Pauli

60%

Home underdog +EV at 42% our prob vs 35.7% implied, DDN 2-1 vs St. Pauli

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Both offenses dismal (leaders 0.19-0.38 gpg), total 2.5 low for Bundesliga poor teams

Game Analysis

Cologne's 30 pts and El Mala's 11 goals edge St. Pauli's 25 pts and Sinani's 5 despite even ML (+9.8 EV). Low leader production projects 2.1 goals (under 2.5). Poor data caps confidence; ML profitable tier historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Danel Sinani St. Pauli

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 5 goals/26 matches (0.19 gpg), model proj 0.2 vs soft line

PROP ALERT

Joel Chima Fujita St. Pauli

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Season 3 assists/28 matches (0.11 avg), low usage projection

PROP ALERT

Jackson Irvine St. Pauli

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Midfielder low goal threat in poor team offense

PROP ALERT

Oladapo Olaitan St. Pauli

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Limited chances vs Cologne defense, model proj 1.1

PROP ALERT

Johannes Eggestein St. Pauli

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Team low xG, striker underperforms in relegation form

PROP ALERT

Carlo Boukhalfa St. Pauli

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Minimal creative output projected

PROP ALERT

Morgan Guilavogui St. Pauli

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Poor team pace limits SOT volume

PROP ALERT

Elias Saad St. Pauli

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Winger low conversion, matchup neutral

PROP ALERT

Said El Mala FC Cologne

Under 0.5 goals 60%

11 goals/29 (0.38 gpg) but St. Pauli defense caps projection at 0.3

PROP ALERT

Ragnar Ache FC Cologne

Under 0.5 assists 57%

4 assists/28 low volume in struggling attack

PROP ALERT

Steffen Tigges FC Cologne

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Shared usage in low xG offense

PROP ALERT

Florian Kainz FC Cologne

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Captain but team poor creation vs road spot

PROP ALERT

Davie Selke FC Cologne

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Road game limits opportunities

PROP ALERT

Linton Maina FC Cologne

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 60%

Winger efficiency low in projections

PROP ALERT

Eric Martel FC Cologne

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Mid low assist threat

PROP ALERT

Jan Thielmann FC Cologne

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Young winger minimal goals projected

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