Fiorentina at AS Roma

Serie A May 04, 2026 06:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

AS Roma

-0.5

calibrated fuses to 65% home cover probability vs -0.5 line

Ω Bottom Line

Roma ML -175: 65% posterior + extreme whales ($222k vol) yield +2.1 EV vs Fiorentina

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

AS Roma

Line: -0.5

64%

calibrated fuses to 65% home cover probability vs -0.5 line

MONEYLINE

AS Roma

65%

65% win probability exceeds -175 breakeven (63.6%) by 1.4pp with extreme institutional whales ($222k)

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Neutral model projection at 2.5 total in low-data Serie A spot

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior locks Roma home win at 62.3%, dead-even with de-vigged -165 line for razor-thin EV. Extreme whale signal ($205K institutional volume, 64% conviction) from profitable wallets overrides insufficient models/data in N=0 spot. Spread -180 kills value (breakeven 64.3%); totals/pass props unplayable without pace/xG.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen Fiorentina

Over 0.5 goals 60%

11 goals in 14 matches projects 0.7 vs Roma (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen Fiorentina

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

56 shots season pace projects 1.7 in high-usage away spot (model)

PROP ALERT

Matias Soule Fiorentina

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Low volume 5 assists/29 matches, tough Roma matchup (model)

PROP ALERT

Matias Soule Fiorentina

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Winger usage projects 1.1 vs home defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

David de Gea Fiorentina

Over 2.5 saves 55%

106 saves season pace in Roma-favored spot (model)

PROP ALERT

Marin Pongracic Fiorentina

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender low volume projects under (model)

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen Fiorentina

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 59%

Road underdog caps attempts (model adj)

PROP ALERT

Matias Soule Fiorentina

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Primary creator, low scoring (model)

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean AS Roma

Over 0.5 goals 59%

8 goals/26 matches, home favorite boost projects 0.6 (model)

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean AS Roma

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

98 shots pace projects 1.7 home (model)

PROP ALERT

Albert Gudmundsson AS Roma

Under 0.5 assists 56%

4 assists/29, low projection vs Fio (model)

PROP ALERT

Mile Svilar AS Roma

Under 2.0 saves 55%

100 saves pace but home favorite limits shots (model)

PROP ALERT

Bryan Cristante AS Roma

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Midfield role low SOT projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Albert Gudmundsson AS Roma

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Home usage projects slight over (model)

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean AS Roma

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 56%

Fio defense caps volume (model adj)

PROP ALERT

Mile Svilar AS Roma

Over 3.0 saves 55%

Away attack projects shots faced (model)

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