Genoa at Atalanta

Serie A May 02, 2026 06:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Atalanta

-0.5

calibrated 63.6% home win aligns with -0.5 cover prob but juice too high

Ω Bottom Line

Atalanta 63.6% posterior = market fair, 0 EV on -175 ML; model 3-0 vs Genoa but juice/pass

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior pegs Atalanta home win at 63.6% matching devigged market with 0pp edge. Heavy juice on -175 ML/-0.5 spread kills value (EV negative). Model 3-0 vs Genoa but N=0 sport data caps confidence; pass all amid poor signals.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nikola Krstovic Genoa

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: season 10 goals/30 matches (0.33 avg) < line

PROP ALERT

Nikola Krstovic Genoa

Under 2.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: ~87 total shots/30 matches avg ~2.9 but matchup adjusted down vs Atalanta D

PROP ALERT

Lorenzo Colombo Genoa

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: 7 goals/34 matches (0.21 avg) well under line

PROP ALERT

Lorenzo Colombo Genoa

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection: 61 total shots/34 ~1.8 but conservative vs home D

PROP ALERT

Nicola Leali Genoa

Under 3.5 saves 55%

Model projection: ~55 saves low volume suggests under vs Atalanta attack

PROP ALERT

Johan Vásquez Genoa

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection: Defender low usage, rare SOT

PROP ALERT

Aarón Martín Genoa

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection: Fullback limited attacking returns

PROP ALERT

Nicola Leali Genoa

Under 3.0 saves 55%

Model projection: Adjusted for matchup pace

PROP ALERT

Charles De Ketelaere Atalanta

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection: AM primary assists, secondary scorer vs Genoa D

PROP ALERT

Charles De Ketelaere Atalanta

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection: High usage AM, home boost

PROP ALERT

Marco Carnesecchi Atalanta

Under 2.5 saves 56%

Model projection: 101 saves/28 matches ~3.6 but Genoa low threat

PROP ALERT

Marten de Roon Atalanta

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection: DM defensive role, minimal SOT

PROP ALERT

Marco Carnesecchi Atalanta

Under 3.0 saves 55%

Model projection: Home clean sheet potential

PROP ALERT

Charles De Ketelaere Atalanta

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection: Usage vs Genoa

PROP ALERT

Marten de Roon Atalanta

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection: Occasional long shots

PROP ALERT

Marco Carnesecchi Atalanta

Over 2.0 saves 55%

Model projection: Minimum vs road underdog

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