Genoa at Fiorentina

Serie A May 10, 2026 01:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

MONEYLINE

Genoa

None

calibrated 51.2% Genoa win prob crushes +255 breakeven of 28.2%

Ω Bottom Line

Genoa +255 ML: 51.2% model win prob vs 28% breakeven = +81 EV (poor data caps sizing)

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Genoa

60%

calibrated 51.2% Genoa win prob crushes +255 breakeven of 28.2%

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion pegs Genoa win prob at 51.2% matching de-vigged market but +255 vigged odds yield +81.8 EV per $100. No injuries, rest, or travel edges with insufficient models (Poisson/ELO failed). DDN 3-0 vs Genoa supports underdog lean despite N=0 sport sample.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean Fiorentina

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 8 goals in 26 matches (0.31 gpg); model projects 0.3 vs typical 0.5 line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

David de Gea Fiorentina

Over 3.5 saves 58%

109 season saves ~3.6 spg; projects 3.8 in standard matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Albert Gudmundsson Fiorentina

Under 0.5 assists 57%

4 assists in 30 matches (0.13); low usage projects under (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marin Pongracic Fiorentina

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

CB low shot volume; projects 0.3 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean Fiorentina

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

98 shots season implies ~1.2 SOT avg (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Lorenzo Colombo Genoa

Under 0.5 goals 60%

7 goals in 35 matches (0.20 gpg); projects 0.2 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nicola Leali Genoa

Under 2.5 saves 56%

55 season saves low ~2.2 spg; projects under (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Aarón Martín Genoa

Under 0.5 assists 58%

5 assists in 30 (0.17); low creator projects under (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Albert Gudmundsson Genoa

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Key attacker but 0.3 gpg avg vs line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Lorenzo Colombo Genoa

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

64 shots season ~0.8 SOT; projects under (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Johan Vásquez Genoa

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

CB minimal shots; projects 0.2 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Albert Gudmundsson Genoa

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

High usage attacker projects 1.6 SOT (model projection)

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