Gilbert Burns at Mike Malott

MMA April 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Gilbert Burns

-0.5

Burns elite BJJ and 22-7 UFC record vs Malott's 10-2-1 with limited elite experience

Ω Bottom Line

Burns BJJ/grappling edge vs Malott reach, 58% win prob +10.7 EV at -110 model line

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Gilbert Burns

Line: -0.5

58%

Burns elite BJJ and 22-7 UFC record vs Malott's 10-2-1 with limited elite experience

MONEYLINE

Gilbert Burns

58%

Burns superior grappling matchup edge (8 career subs) over Malott's submission style

TOTAL

under

Line: 4.5

55%

Welterweight finish rate 65% inside distance in 5-rounders projects 3.5 expected rounds

Game Analysis

Gilbert Burns' veteran grappling (1.8 TD avg, 78% TDD) exploits Malott's unproven elite defense despite 6-year age gap. Model fuses style matchup for 62% Burns win prob vs -130 fair line (5.5% edge, +9.7 EV). Data scarcity (11% quality) caps at LEAN; monitor roster/injuries.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Over 1.5 goals 60%

Model projects 2.1 takedowns in grappling-heavy matchup

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Over 42.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Projected 48 sig strikes at 3.9/min pace adjusted for 5 rounds

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Over 3.5 saves 57%

82% career TDD projects 4+ defenses vs Malott's wrestling

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Under 0.5 strikeouts 56%

Low KD rate (0.2 per fight) vs durable Malott

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Under 50.5 hits 55%

Shorter fight projects fewer total strikes landed

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Under 35.5 blocks 55%

Malott striking volume adjusted down by grappling control

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Over 1.5 steals 56%

Model projects reversals in ground exchanges

PROP ALERT

Gilbert Burns Gilbert Burns

Under 0.5 three_pointers 55%

Minimal knockdowns expected (MMA adaptation)

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Under 2.5 goals 59%

Burns 82% TDD limits Malott takedown volume

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Over 55.5 shots_on_goal 60%

+4" reach boosts sig strike projection to 58

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Under 2.5 saves 58%

Burns grappling dominance reduces TDD opportunities

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Under 0.5 strikeouts 57%

Low sub attempt success vs elite BJJ

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Under 60.5 hits 56%

Shorter duration caps total strikes

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Over 40.5 blocks 55%

Burns striking volume projects more absorbed

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Under 1.0 steals 55%

Burns top control limits reversals

PROP ALERT

Mike Malott Mike Malott

Over 0.5 three_pointers 56%

Reach aids occasional KD projection (MMA adaptation)

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