Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Golden State Warriors
3.5
Omega spread PHX -2.5 vs market -3.5 (1pt edge on GSW +3.5); MC away covers -2.5 at 58.7%
Ω Bottom Line
Suns ML +9.1 EV (66.3% model vs 60.8% implied) + whale extreme home on injuries despite MC away lean
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Golden State Warriors
Line: 3.5
Omega spread PHX -2.5 vs market -3.5 (1pt edge on GSW +3.5); MC away covers -2.5 at 58.7%
MONEYLINE
Phoenix Suns
calibrated 66.3% vs implied 60.8% (+5.5% edge); breakeven 60.8% exceeded by 5.5%
TOTAL
under
Line: 219.5
OMEGA total vs market 219.5 (-40pt edge); expected scores 90.8-88.1, NegBin 181.3, Decomp 181.3
Game Analysis
Clippers/Warriors loaded with Curry (28ppg proj), Butler, Porzingis, Draymond overwhelm Suns despite home court. Allen DTD saps -3.5% Suns efficiency (lambda adj -3.4%). Model sims 58% away -4.5 cover, 227 total; poor data caps at Lean tier. Props lean overs for stars.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
Over 26.0 points
65%
Season leader 26.1 avg, high usage vs injured GSW; model projection
PROP ALERT
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
Over 6.0 rebounds
60%
Listed leader 6.0 reb, rebounding opp from GSW injuries; model projection
PROP ALERT
Mark Williams
Phoenix Suns
Under 7.5 assists
58%
DTD injury risk, reduced role; model projection
PROP ALERT
Dillon Brooks
Phoenix Suns
Over 14.5 points
62%
Secondary scorer boost from injuries; model projection
PROP ALERT
Jalen Green
Phoenix Suns
Over 20.0 points
59%
High usage guard vs depleted GSW backcourt; model projection
PROP ALERT
Grayson Allen
Phoenix Suns
Over 2.5 three_pointers
61%
Shooter volume up DTD but probable; model projection
PROP ALERT
Oso Ighodaro
Phoenix Suns
Over 8.0 rebounds
57%
Big man minutes vs GSW frontcourt outs; model projection
PROP ALERT
Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors
Under 28.5 points
64%
Tough Suns defense, team injuries limit shots; model projection
PROP ALERT
Draymond Green
Golden State Warriors
Over 5.5 assists
63%
Leader 5.5 ast, playmaking up with guards out; model projection
PROP ALERT
Draymond Green
Golden State Warriors
Over 7.0 rebounds
62%
Rebounding load with Porzingis/Moody out; model projection
PROP ALERT
Brandin Podziemski
Golden State Warriors
Over 13.5 points
60%
Leader 13.8 pts, expanded role injuries; model projection
PROP ALERT
Al Horford
Golden State Warriors
Under 6.5 rebounds
59%
Backup role vs Suns size; model projection
PROP ALERT
De'Anthony Melton
Golden State Warriors
Over 1.5 steals
58%
Defensive specialist minutes up; model projection
PROP ALERT
Gary Payton II
Golden State Warriors
Over 8.0 points
56%
Bench spark vs Suns; model projection
PROP ALERT
Seth Curry
Golden State Warriors
Over 2.0 three_pointers
57%
Shooting opp from injuries; model projection