Grant Dawson at Mateusz Rębecki

MMA May 09, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Grant Dawson

Whale steam provides marginal edge in model even spread

Ω Bottom Line

Dawson ML +4 EV from $48k strong whale steam (100% conf) vs 50/50 model line

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Grant Dawson

55%

Whale steam provides marginal edge in model even spread

MONEYLINE

Grant Dawson

58%

Strong whale consensus ($48k volume tier) in 50/50 model matchup

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

55%

Grappling-heavy matchup (Dawson wrestler vs Rebecki sambo) projects decision

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion dead even at 50/50 with zero edge and no Poisson/ELO/MC data. Only signal is strong whale action ($48.6k, 100% on Grant Dawson, STRONG tier=steam equiv). Poor data (24% quality) caps conviction at lean; favor Dawson ML/spread over juiced spots.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Over 42.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projection favors higher volume in grappling exchanges (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Decision-heavy fighter, low finish rate projection vs grappler

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Over 4.5 saves 55%

Strong TD defense projection in wrestler matchup

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Over 38.5 hits 57%

Projected strike output above line per pace model

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Under 1.5 strikeouts 56%

Low sub attempt projection in standup/grapple mix

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Takedown attempts projection elevated vs grappler

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Takedown defense usage up in stylistic matchup

PROP ALERT

Grant Dawson Grant Dawson

Over 20.5 hits 55%

1st round strike projection model-based

PROP ALERT