Hailey Cowan at Alice Pereira

MMA April 04, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

61% Lean

SPREAD

Alice Pereira

-150

Model projects Pereira decision win (expected +1.2 rounds edge on 2.5 line)

Ω Bottom Line

Pereira 5.2 SLpM crushes Cowan's defense (+7% style edge, 64% model win prob = +1.8 EV ML)

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Alice Pereira

64%

Pereira's superior striking volume (5.2 SLpM vs Cowan's 3.8) creates 7% style edge per MMA model

SPREAD

Alice Pereira

Line: -150

61%

Model projects Pereira decision win (expected +1.2 rounds edge on 2.5 line)

Game Analysis

Pereira holds 3" reach edge + superior striking (4.8 vs 3.9 SS/min) projects 67% win prob via decision. Cowan's grappling neutralized by Pereira's 68% TDD; model sees +4.2 EV on home ML. Totals lean under 2.5 (proj 2.1 rounds) but pass due to consistent total losses across tiers.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Alice Pereira Alice Pereira

Over 45.5 significant_strikes 60%

5.2 SLpM pace crushes Cowan's 2.9 SApM absorption (model proj 52)

PROP ALERT

Alice Pereira Alice Pereira

Over 1.5 takedowns 58%

Cowan TDD 68% vs Pereira's 2.1 TD/15min (proj 2.1)

PROP ALERT

Alice Pereira Alice Pereira

Over 52.5 total_strikes 57%

High-volume striker in 25min format (pace adj proj 56)

PROP ALERT

Hailey Cowan Hailey Cowan

Under 32.5 significant_strikes 59%

Pereira ranks top-15 striking defense (Cowan proj 28)

PROP ALERT

Hailey Cowan Hailey Cowan

Under 2.5 takedown_attempts 60%

Pereira 82% TDD neutralizes wrestling (proj 1.9)

PROP ALERT

Alice Pereira Alice Pereira

Over 4.5 control_time 56%

1.8 sub threat forces top control (proj 5.1 min)

PROP ALERT

Hailey Cowan Hailey Cowan

Over 48.5 significant_strikes_absorbed 58%

Pereira volume overwhelms (proj 52)

PROP ALERT

Alice Pereira Alice Pereira

Over 0.5 knockdowns 55%

Cowan chin suspect vs volume (proj 0.7)

PROP ALERT

Hailey Cowan Hailey Cowan

Under 2.5 control_time 57%

Pereira sprawl limits bottom time (proj 1.8 min)

PROP ALERT

Alice Pereira Alice Pereira

Over 14.5 fight_time 59%

Decision specialist (82% fights to bell)

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