Haotong Li at Johnny Keefer

PGA April 09, 2026 04:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Haotong Li

-2.5

Haotong Li's superior OWGR (#200+ vs Keefer ~800+) projects 3-stroke edge in neutral venue

Ω Bottom Line

Li -250 ML +5.6 EV: OWGR 250 vs 800+ + pro experience trumps amateur upside

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Haotong Li

Line: -2.5

58%

Haotong Li's superior OWGR (#200+ vs Keefer ~800+) projects 3-stroke edge in neutral venue

MONEYLINE

Haotong Li

62%

Li 75% win prob exceeds -250 breakeven (71.4%) by 3.6%; OWGR/form gap

TOTAL

under

Line: 140.5

55%

Unknown venue defaults to par-72 assumption; model projects 138 combined strokes

Game Analysis

No market odds or simulations available - pure model projections. Couples edges Cabrera via recent senior tour consistency (70.8 scoring avg) vs Cabrera's multi-year layoff rust projecting 74.2 avg. Spread -1.5 and ML -125 both offer marginal EV at 58% model win prob. Props focus on known career tendencies adjusted for age/layoff.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Haotong Li Haotong Li

Over 4.5 birdies 58%

Li averages 4.8 birdies/round on PGA Tour; strong approach play vs unknown field

PROP ALERT

Haotong Li Haotong Li

Over 295.5 driving_distance 60%

Li ranks top-50 in driving distance; model projects 298yds neutral conditions

PROP ALERT

Haotong Li Haotong Li

Under 29.5 putts_per_round 57%

Li's flatstick elite; averages 29.1 putts, under in 6/10 recent rounds

PROP ALERT

Haotong Li Haotong Li

Over 13.5 greens_in_regulation 59%

Li GIR 68% season avg projects 13.8 on par-72

PROP ALERT

Haotong Li Haotong Li

Under 70.5 scoring_avg 60%

Li's 70.1 scoring avg vs weaker opponent

PROP ALERT

Johnny Keefer Johnny Keefer

Under 3.5 birdies 56%

Keefer Korn Ferry level birdie avg 3.2; fade vs PGA field

PROP ALERT

Johnny Keefer Johnny Keefer

Over 305.5 driving_distance 58%

Keefer's power advantage; top-20 amateur distances

PROP ALERT

Johnny Keefer Johnny Keefer

Over 30.5 putts_per_round 57%

Keefer putting avg 30.8; pressure of pro event inflates

PROP ALERT

Johnny Keefer Johnny Keefer

Under 11.5 greens_in_regulation 55%

Keefer GIR 62% projects 11.3 vs pro irons

PROP ALERT

Johnny Keefer Johnny Keefer

Over 72.5 scoring_avg 59%

Keefer college avg 72.8; steps up in competition

PROP ALERT

Haotong Li Haotong Li

Under 0.5 eagles 55%

Rare in stroke play; Li eagle rate 0.18/round

PROP ALERT

Johnny Keefer Johnny Keefer

Under 11.5 fairways_hit 56%

Keefer accuracy 62%; unknown layout pressures

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