Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians
0.0
calibrated posterior 57.1% home win vs model 40.2% implies +3.1% edge
Ω Bottom Line
Guardians ML +149 model edge +3.1% Bayesian vs 40% implied, MC under 70% on 24 total
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians
calibrated posterior 57.1% home win vs model 40.2% implies +3.1% edge
MONEYLINE
Cleveland Guardians
calibrated edge +3.1% home (57.1%) exceeds model-implied 40.2% breakeven by 12%
TOTAL
under
Line: 24.0
model 10k sims under 70.3% vs 24.0 total line
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion posterior 57.1% Guardians win (+3.1% edge) over omega 40.2% implied despite VERY_LOW agreement and extreme $286k whales on Astros. MC 10k sims project 10.6-10.4 Guardians edge (47.3% win, 70.5% under 24.0 HIGH conf). Equal -7% injury hits but DDN 51.5% MLB calibrated lower on degraded data.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Jose Ramirez
Cleveland Guardians
Over 0.5 hits
58%
Season leader in HR, model proj 1.2 hits vs soft matchup
PROP ALERT
Jose Ramirez
Cleveland Guardians
Under 0.5 home_runs
55%
6 HR leader but low total game proj
PROP ALERT
Brayan Rocchio
Cleveland Guardians
Under 1.0 hits
57%
.254 BA leader, regression in low-scoring sim
PROP ALERT
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians
Over 5.5 strikeouts
59%
40 K leader, favorable Astros matchup
PROP ALERT
Parker Messick
Cleveland Guardians
Over 4.5 strikeouts
56%
1.05 ERA suggests control, model proj 5.1 K
PROP ALERT
Mike Burrows
Houston Astros
Under 4.0 strikeouts
55%
6.75 ERA poor, Guardians offense limits K
PROP ALERT
Jose Ramirez
Cleveland Guardians
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
Power leader, home edge in sims
PROP ALERT
Brayan Rocchio
Cleveland Guardians
Under 1.0 total_bases
56%
Contact hitter, low output proj