Inter Miami CF at Toronto FC

MLS May 09, 2026 05:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

54% Lean

SPREAD

Toronto FC

0.5

OMEGA spread vs market MIA -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge to home +0.5; MC home cover +0.0 at 38.4% implies ~54% for +0.5 incl draws

Ω Bottom Line

Toronto +230 (36% model vs 30% implied, +20 EV) + over 3.5 (64% vs 50%, omega 7.5 total), whales dump $297k extreme on home

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Toronto FC

Line: 0.5

54%

OMEGA spread vs market MIA -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge to home +0.5; MC home cover +0.0 at 38.4% implies ~54% for +0.5 incl draws

MONEYLINE

Toronto FC

36%

calibrated 36.4% home win vs market prior 30.3% (+6.1pp edge); omega ML +143 vs market +230 offers superior price

TOTAL

over

Line: 3.5

59%

calibrated over 3.5 posterior 63.7% vs market 50% (+13.7pp); OMEGA total and Dixon-Coles ~12.8 obliterate low market line

Game Analysis

Omega even spread vs market MIA -0.5 + Bayesian +6.1pp home edge (36.4% posterior) with extreme $296k whales on TOR creates +0.5 value at 55% MC cover prob. Total mismatch huge: omega 7.5/exp 7.6 goals vs 3.5 line (63.7% over posterior) despite cold weather. ML +230 offers +20 EV but pure win prob too low for units; prefer spread.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Luka Gavran Toronto FC

Over 3.5 saves 62%

Model total 7.5 projects increased shots (28/game pace); primary goalie in high-event matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

William Yarbrough Toronto FC

Under 2.0 saves 58%

Backup goalie role likely; low usage in rotation (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Raheem Edwards Toronto FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 60%

Defender profile, low shot volume vs Miami defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Richie Laryea Toronto FC

Over 0.0 goals 55%

Wing back with set-piece threat in high-total spot (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Henry Wingo Toronto FC

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Limited creative role, low xA profile (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Matheus Pereira Toronto FC

Over 1.0 shots_on_goal 57%

High-usage mid in model high-pace game (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Raheem Edwards Toronto FC

Under 0.0 assists 61%

Defensive LB, minimal assist upside (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Kobe Franklin Toronto FC

Under 0.0 goals 64%

CB with zero goal threat (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Dayne St. Clair Inter Miami CF

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Projected starter in 7.5 total spot drives shots faced (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Luis Barraza Inter Miami CF

Under 1.5 saves 56%

Backup limited minutes (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Sergio Reguilón Inter Miami CF

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 63%

LB focus defensive, low SOG avg (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Facundo Mura Inter Miami CF

Under 0.0 assists 65%

Defender minimal involvement in build-up (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Maximiliano Falcón Inter Miami CF

Under 0.0 goals 62%

CB zero scoring threat (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Micael Inter Miami CF

Over 0.5 shots_on_goal 57%

CB occasional long shots in set pieces (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Noah Allen Inter Miami CF

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Young defender low creative output (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Ian Fray Inter Miami CF

Under 0.0 goals 61%

Depth CB no goals expected (model projection)

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