Japan at Las Vegas Aces
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Japan
-2.5
Aces -6.9% lambda adjustment from Dana Evans out creates 2.5pt model edge for JAPAN.
Ω Bottom Line
Aces -6.9% scoring adj (Evans out) projects JAPAN -2.5 (54% cover, +2.1 EV); data-poor lean
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
JAPAN
Line: -2.5
Aces -6.9% lambda adjustment from Dana Evans out creates 2.5pt model edge for JAPAN.
Game Analysis
Model projects JAPAN 83-80.5 win (-2.5 spread) after -6.9% Aces lambda hit from Evans out (poor quality but directional). No market/MC/sharp data limits edge to lean tier despite historical lean spread profitability (58.2% WR). Props capped at 65 conf without lines; focus Aces stars + Japan leaders.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 24.5 points
64%
WNBA scoring leader vs national team frontcourt; usage up with Evans out.
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 11.5 rebounds
62%
Rebounding machine; matchup favors boards vs Japan.
PROP ALERT
Jackie Young
Las Vegas Aces
Over 17.5 points
61%
High-usage guard; more shots with Evans sidelined.
PROP ALERT
Chelsea Gray
Las Vegas Aces
Over 6.5 assists
60%
Floor general; playmaking up in injury spot.
PROP ALERT
Jewell Loyd
Las Vegas Aces
Over 18.0 points
59%
Volume scorer; favorable exhibition matchup.
PROP ALERT
Chennedy Carter
Las Vegas Aces
Over 15.0 points
58%
Bench spark; minutes boost from Evans out.
PROP ALERT
NaLyssa Smith
Las Vegas Aces
Over 7.5 rebounds
57%
Double-double threat; rebound edge vs Japan.
PROP ALERT
Brianna Turner
Las Vegas Aces
Over 1.5 blocks
56%
Rim protector; active vs international bigs.