Jeremy Stephens at King Green

MMA May 10, 2026 01:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

King Green

-1.5

scoring model-derived expected margin +1.8 favors home cover after 62% win prob fusion

Ω Bottom Line

King Green ML -150 (omega_model) +3.3 EV on grappling mismatch vs rusty Stephens (-20% layoff)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

King Green

Line: -1.5

57%

scoring model-derived expected margin +1.8 favors home cover after 62% win prob fusion

MONEYLINE

King Green

60%

Green's TDD 68% + sub threat exploits Stephens' weak grappling defense (TDD <50% career)

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Striker vs grappler = 55% finish rate inside distance (model sim 2.3 expected rounds)

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior dead even at 50/50 with 0% edge and model agreement insufficient. Stephens (age/rust) vs Green (volume) striker matchup projects pick'em ML -110, 0 spread, 2.5 total overslight due to KO variance but no quant edge. Poor data (19%) + N=0 calibration forces all game PASS; props offer micro-edges on volume props. MMA min edge 7% unmet.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Over 48.5 shots_on_goal 60%

High-volume striking pace (5.2 SPM) vs Stephens' low-output brawler style

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Model projects 0.65 KD/sub attempts on Stephens' suspect chin/TDD

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Over 1.5 strikeouts 59%

Takedown avg 1.9 last10, Stephens allows 3.2 per 15min

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Over 2.5 blocks 57%

TD defense projection boosted by Stephens' power striking attempts

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Over 42.5 hits 56%

Clean strike projection vs aging defense

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Under 0.5 steals 55%

Low scramble volume expected in control matchup

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Over 38.5 shots_on_target 60%

Accuracy 48% career, projects higher vs static striker

PROP ALERT

King Green King Green

Over 55.5 total_bases 58%

Composite strike volume projection (sig strikes + TD)

PROP ALERT