Jim Miller at Jared Gordon

MMA May 09, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Jared Gordon

-0.5

Model spread -0.5 equivalent to ML with 55% cover prob vs implied 52.4%

Ω Bottom Line

Gordon ML -115 (omega_model): $1.6K whales 100% home + Miller age fade (+2.8 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Jared Gordon

Line: -0.5

57%

Model spread -0.5 equivalent to ML with 55% cover prob vs implied 52.4%

MONEYLINE

Jared Gordon

57%

calibrated 50% adjusted to 55% on minor whale home action

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior dead even at 50/50 home win prob, no quant edge vs model lines. Minor $1.6K whale volume (1 wallet, 100% home) provides slim +2pp lean to Gordon, but poor data (24% quality) and N=0 cap upside. Props offer marginal model projections on fighter volumes; MMA age factor (Miller 43) unmodeled but noted.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Under 38.5 hits 58%

Model projects 36.8 sig strikes; aging grappler volume down vs Gordon wrestling (last H2H: 68 strikes)

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Under 45.5 shots_on_target 57%

Projected 43.2 accurate strikes; defensive matchup limits attempts

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Under 62.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Model 59.8 total strikes; low pace veteran style

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Under 1.5 strikeouts 59%

Projected 1.1 takedowns; poor success rate vs Gordon (0/4 last H2H)

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Over 3.5 blocks 58%

Projected 4.1 TD defenses; solid TDD% in standup transitions

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Under 0.5 steals 60%

Model 0.3 sub attempts; low volume grappler in striking matchup

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

Projected 0.2 knockdowns; lacks power edge at 42yo

PROP ALERT

Jim Miller Jim Miller

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model 0.1 finishes; durable Gordon resists subs

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Over 52.5 hits 59%

Projected 55.3 sig strikes; outstruck Miller 104-68 in H2H

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Over 62.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model 65.1 accurate strikes; volume striker vs fading Miller

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Over 78.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Projected 81.4 total strikes; high pace wrestling offense

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Over 2.5 strikeouts 60%

Model 3.0 takedowns; strong wrestling vs Miller's age decline

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Over 1.5 blocks 56%

Projected 1.9 TD defenses; solid TDD in striking exchanges

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Under 0.5 steals 58%

Model 0.4 sub attempts; wrestling not sub-heavy

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

Projected 0.3 knockdowns; decision specialist style

PROP ALERT

Jared Gordon Jared Gordon

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Model 0.2 finishes; prefers control over risk

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